Tuesday, August 7, 2012
the Dilemma of Sinai
could we help ignore analysing what took place in Sinai? will we be able to rule out cospiracies againt the country? or against one faction or another in the current power struggle in Egypt? will we even know the truth?
many questions pop to mind when we think of what, why and who did this? who is behind the bombings?
funny enough.. in no time.. the internet and probably other media sources.. just like our old still exisiting regime.. jumped into conclusions and ananlysing the limited facts we have... is it a culture, a habbit or just an inherent characteristic of the Egyptian mind to just jump into conclusions based on assumptions...
if we consider all the options; from Israel's Moussad to the Jihadist movements in Sinai, from the Hamas fanatics to Iran.. the role of those who were just released from prisons who were directly involved in mudering officers as part of their holy war against the authorities.. what do we really know? few facts if any.. and all the rest are assumptions..
the most valid argument is in relation to the interests.. but are we sure that only those with direct interests are involved..the probability is high.. this is one of the theories in politics.. but in this case .. it is not a far fetched scenario..
however.. and regardless of who did what.. now and why... the implications of what took place on the current power struggle in Egypt is absolutely evident... between the president.. the MB supreme guide and the SCAF cant be ignored... it depends who will use it and in which manner it will be used...
moreover, if we consider the last events that were taking place in the last few monthg.. from the perspective of real politique of what is going on in the region.. with the hurdles facing the syrian regime that hosted hamas leaders for a long time.. the grip was highly tightened on them... then.. all of a sudden comes someone in Egypt to assist them almost unconditionally.. that is if what was published in the media is true.. from the visit of the so called their MP, to opening the borders, to support financial and material goods.. the red line was stepped.. remember the flotila...
there are some issues.. one should be careful when messing up with.. one day.. we may know who did it from a lost cable in the archives of a ministry or an intelligence service..
yet.. for now.. for the internal power struggle in Egypt.. SCAF won this time... for the regional balance.. it is a message.. somehow.. this reminds me with 1956.. with all the differences it entails.. but it is an attempt to either benefit or benefit.. it is a zero sum game for us.. either do what we are doing now.. which benefits israel.. or we get dragged into a war .. or clashes which we are not prepared for.. which also benefits israel...
some thoughts ... maybe worth documenting while feeling the sorrow of what the situation led to .. between a faction that wants to change our identity to some oldies who want to protect themselves.. we. the PEOPLE, are still trapped and lost on an island in the middle of a vast ocean.. but.. until when!!!
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