2011 turned to be a thriller to Egypt. Unexpectedly, the whole region went from political stagnation into a hotshot boiling point calling for change and aspirations to a better future. Egypt, after 30 years managed to oust Mubarak in February and put him to stand trial in August. The aftermath was leaving SCAF in power, lack of security, the rise of new political factions, including political Islam which left many of the Egyptians worried especially women and Copts. This article will address partially the events that Egypt of 2011 has witnessed.
The Fall of the last Pharaoh
On the 25th of January 2011 the day of the Police, Cairo woke up on mass protests, unprecedented since the bread riots of 1977. The demonstrators called for putting an end to the emergency law, the brutality of the police and requesting to apply democracy and social justice. Few days later, numbers increased in all main squares of the Egyptian Governorates and they were met with extreme police brutality that led to hundreds of death and injuries. They maximized their calls after the reactions by Mubarak and his regime, to get rid of the last Pharaoh and his regime, until they managed on the 11th of February to do the first but failed to do the latter.
Although those who started the revolution belong mostly to the middle class, they were joined quickly with masses that were fed up of living under a regime that didn’t fulfill their aspirations nor had them on its radar. If freedom is one of the major reasons that started it all, it incorporated within freedom of fear, of speech, fighting corruption and aspiring for democracy, especially after the farce parliamentary elections that were held in November 2010 when the NDP swept all opposition and gained 100% of the seats of the People’s assembly. It has also included the call for social justice after the horrendous rise in food prices, living expenses and lack of employment opportunities to the youth.
The youth who were adamant to get the job done were mostly non-politicized; they didn’t belong to specific political party or group but they called for what they believed in and what touches their lives. Most of the political parties and the Muslim Brotherhood refused to join in with the demonstrators. Yet, some of the youth whether members of parties or the Brotherhood joined in their individual capacity the demonstrations failing to obey their leaders. These people wanted a better Egypt to live in and enjoy living in.
With the lack of pressure from abroad, the Pharaoh and his officials tried to maneuver but failed after the persistence of the street. The change of tide against them from the United States, her allies and the shift of the position of SCAF, which decided to save itself, paved the way to ousting the President. Even though Mubarak was and still is one of the Military establishment in Egypt, the leaders of the establishment well calculated their move by which they got rid of the groomed son Gamal and prevented him from succeeding his father in leading the State.
The outcome was a success in ousting Mubarak on the 11th of February, yet not the regime. In fact, in the last 11 months, Egypt has witnessed the recycling of the old guard of Mubarak in assuming different roles in running the country. Ministers, Prime Ministers, Governors, Directors of institutions, head of Public establishment are the same or those who were x-NDP and served directly with the ousted president. The revolution called for transparency and accountability in order to move forward. Nonetheless, Egyptians are still bewildered about incidents that took place starting with the Camel’s attack on demonstrators in Tahrir, passing through Mohamed Mahmoud and recently Kasr Eleini’s violence. Mubarak and his party are in Tora, yet, we didn’t witness any outcome to the trials. On the contrary, recently Suzan Mubarak and Zakaria Azmy- the chef de cabinet of the ousted President- were released temporarily until the trials take place. All this leads to further lack of faith in the institutions that are running the show. It adds to the frustration of people and leads to further instability. The comments by SCAF and the governments they appoint on each incident are directing their accusations to foreign hands or their parties. This is and won’t be satisfactory to the people, so the demonstrators keep going on and expected to continue regardless of the outcome of the parliamentary elections that are currently held in the country. This will advance the state into anarchy and divide it further. In fact if this is all planned through the divide and rule strategy, for SCAF it might be partially working on the short run but it won’t work on the long run when people realize that they were deceived.
The rise of new political forces including Political Islam:
After the fall of Mubarak, many of the deprived political factions, especially those belonging to the Islamic political forces spoke out and started to prepare themselves to form political parties and join in into the political game. Moreover, other secular and youth parties also came into place and did their best to look appealing to the Egyptian voters.
However, the short period that was given to the newly born political factions deprived them from privileges Islamist factions enjoy; sympathy for suffering by the security apparatus of the ousted president, organization, funding and the divine word. Although, the laws regulating the political game in Egypt criminalizes using religion in politics, yet the lack of the rule of law was flagrant in this case and during both the referendum of March on the 1971 constitutional amendments and the ongoing elections that started in November. This raises doubts that SCAF and the US support the role of the Brotherhood. SCAF was lenient in applying the laws of elections, political parties and foreign funding on the Brotherhood and the US reconfirmed its will to cooperate with them preserve its interests and that of Israel’s. Hence, while Islamist factions using legal or illegal tools managed to get majority in parliament, the Brotherhood replaced the NDP in running the show.
Regardless of how they succeeded in hijacking the revolution, the Brotherhood represents hope and fear to the society. While the focus of many hardliners in the Brotherhood, jama’h Islamiya and the Nour party causes threats to; individual freedoms and liberties that the revolution called for, social justice, as their leaders are mostly rich business people of technocrats, certain sectors like tourism industry, minorities and deprived factions of the society including Copts, women, Shiites and other religious minorities in Egypt, they represent hope to other deprived faction of the community that voted for the divine word in the hope of fighting corruption and aspiring for bettering their lives.
Their job ahead is huge and if they won’t balance striving for power with real reform rather than further oppression, Egypt will face more instability than what she has already witnessed during 2011.
Egyptian minorities including Copts and the rising of political Islam
2011 started by an attack on the Saints Church in Alexandria on the first day of the New Year, during which 23 Copts and Muslims died and around 97 were injured. The former Minister of Interior Habib Eladly accused the Gaza based Army of Islam as the perpetrator of the attack, while they denied it. Later, it was said that the -supposedly- dismantled state security was the mastermind of the deadly attack on that church. The truth is yet to be revealed, if the investigations are carried out and those responsible for that attack stand trials.
While the 25th of January revolution proved that Egyptians from all paths of life and different religions stood hand in hand against the tyranny and brutality of the security apparatus of Mubarak, however, the lack of security and rule of law led to other tragic incidents of sectarian violence and clashes between the Muslim majority and the Christian minority.
Some incidents were contained on ad hoc basis; like signing an agreement between the victim and torturer granting pardon to those who burnt the house and cut the ear of the Coptic teacher Ayman Metri from Qena, rebuilding the church in Atfih in Sol village by the Army or containing the violence in Imbaba after the attack on a church for keeping a Coptic girl inside who converted to Islam. Yet, the lack of accountability in any of these incidents led to further attacks or incitements, until a controversial problem started in Aswan regarding a private place used for worship and doubted to be converted into a church. The problem was solved in Aswan, but violence erupted in Cairo in what is now known as the Maspero Massacre, in order to support the call for a fair law for building Churches.
Now, the whole game has a different dimension for the minorities in Egypt; women are so far threatened that they will be obligated to wear the veil, occupy certain professions or stay home and forget about the dream of equality, nevertheless, those who had already suffered and threatened to suffer further by the rise of political Islam are the Copts. In the political maneuvers minorities received some words of composure while others threaten them. This game is still ongoing but the deprivation of freedom of choice, religion or path might be getting nearer than we expected.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Egyptian expats to vote
A la veille des elections legislatives prevues le mois prochain, l'une des questions sur le tapis est cells du droit de vote pour les egyptiens expatries.
8 October 2011 was named the day for a virtual invitation that was dispatched on Facebook to encourage Egyptians living abroad to demonstrate in front of the Egyptian Embassies and Consulates and in front of the Cabinet of Ministers in Cairo to support the droit de vote pour les egyptiens expatries. They called for sending committees to speedily issue national identity cards to the expats, amend the law for political rights, establishing mechanisms to allow Egyptian expats to vote. An official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “there was only one demonstration that took place in front of the Egyptian Embassy in Washington D.C.”
Egyptian expats are interested in voting in the upcoming elections and they don’t feel alienated from their home country or its problems, Ayman Tarshouby from Australia, said, “it is a matter of dignity and pride. When finally Egyptians get the right to be heard, it is important that all should be heard without depriving part of the community from that right.” Others from Canada, United States and Japan agreed on their eagerness to vote in the upcoming elections. Some are already checking with embassies and consulates as to when they will vote. They confirmed that Living abroad doesn’t make them alienated from their homeland and regardless of their status; students, professionals or investors, they believed that they have an inalienable right to vote and have a say in their country’s future. On the other hand, they confirmed that the Egyptian expats will be so disappointed in the absence of allowing them to vote and they made it clear that the onus of the blame will be borne by Ministry of Foreign Affairs represented in the embassies and consulates abroad, because few will understand the exact mechanism within the government to allow Egyptians living abroad to vote.
The number of Egyptians living abroad is approximately between 7 to 8 million people. Around 74% of them live in Arab countries while 26% live in Western countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Moreover, the remittances of Egyptians abroad are an important asset to the economy of Egypt. According to a report by the Central Bank of Egypt, remittances of Egyptians abroad increased from 9.8 billion USD in the fiscal year 2009/2010 to 12.6 billion USD in 2010/2011. Despite their contribution to the economy of their origin, the issue of allowing Egyptians abroad to vote has been subject to debate for a long time and no conclusion was reached so far. One expat from Japan said that while Egypt is seeking their support to reconstruct Egypt and invest in the country after the revolution, it will be so difficult to show real interest and solidarity while deprived from their right to vote in elections.
SCAF issued message number 49 in April 2011 to confirm that no decision is taken to ban Egyptian expats from voting as claimed through the media. Later, in September General Mamdouh Shaheen, Assistant Minister of Defence and Member of CSFA confirmed the legitimacy of the call of the expats to vote, but he spoke of the difficulty that SCAF can’t assign a judge to monitor elections in every place where the Egyptian Expats reside and it is not possible to hold elections without judicial supervision. He said that it is necessary to look into different options to solve this issue. Summing up, he stated that all the issues relating to voting rights of Egyptian abroad and other matters regarding elections are all within the competence of the Supreme Committee for Elections and not within the competence of SCAF.
Moreover, Officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that to grant the Egyptian expats that right, it requires a decision from the Supreme Committee for Elections. At the same time, Justice Abd El Moez Ibrahim, Chief of the Cairo Court of Appeal and Chair of the Supreme Committee for Elections stated that Egyptian expats voting requires a sovereign decision and it is not within the competence of the Committee to issue it.
Commenting on these contradictory statements, Dr. Gamal Soltan, analyst and Lecturer of Politics at the American University in Cairo said that “he believes that the supreme leadership in the army is troubled to take a decision that will change the familiar electoral base that it knows because the predictability will be jeopardized. Hence, this will limit the effects of the supreme leadership on the process.” He added, “There are so many political views and contradictory analysis about the issue, nevertheless, the comments is an attempt by SCAF to run away from the responsibility and hurl it to others. The others know that the decision is out of their domain and the statement by the Supreme Committee for Elections leads to the embarrassment of SCAF.”
Mr. Soltan also spoke of the difficulties that the Government may encounter in order to guarantee the assistance of the host states where there are big numbers of Egyptian expatriates, he said “in the lack of studies about the issue, hypothetically, some states may not welcome the move, especially in the Gulf where there is a big Egyptian community and the supreme ideology is conservative.” He added that “Egypt is passing though difficult unusual times and the upcoming elections are very important not only for Egyptians, but also internationally and regionally. Hence, a pertinent question arises on how far the host states will not interfere in the electoral process which may further the uncertainty of the outcome. Moreover, legitimacy issues may arise due to the difference between host States, not with regard to casting the vote as such but in the political differences and how far this will affect the legality of the process.” Confirming this view, A Diplomat from a Gulf States stated that “cooperation may not be granted by some Gulf States to the Egyptian embassies and consulates, for 2 main reasons, the fear of huge blocks of Egyptians gathering in one place which may cause not only logistical but security problems and may lead to clashes between them and the authority representatives who will assist in organizing the process. The other aspect is the fear in some conservative societies of spreading the culture of elections among their nationals, bearing in mind the big numbers of Egyptians in comparison to the westerners who vote in their embassies in the Gulf Countries.”
One hypothetical issue the Dr. Soltan has raised and no one spoke of so far the issue of “no tax, no representation,” which states that if one is not a tax payer or evade paying taxes then one shouldn’t have a say in the representation in the country. Expats commenting on this point stated, “Most of those who don’t pay taxes in Egypt evade it because they don’t find a true justification for it, although they pay high taxes to the foreign governments of the states they live in. They do the latter because; they get services in return to their taxes from good health care, to education to others, which is different than the situation in Egypt. Furthermore, if in Egypt, voters are not deprived from that right whether they pay their taxes or not, then the expats should be granted the same right.”
One official from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that “the right of expats to vote is indisputable and it should be organized to take place, but MFA is an implementer and not a decision maker in the matter.” she added, “it is feasible to open the door for expats to vote in elections but there will be a need to gather full information about the exact numbers of Egyptians who have the right to vote in every country, Consular missions and embassies will need to visit Egyptian blocks in collaboration with the local authorities, in order to reach out to people and build confidence among them in the process. This will require support for; the human resources available at the missions, financial and security support. Logistical support will also be required; to issue the national identity card to the expats, unless they will be allowed to use their passports and the machines to count the votes.” She also confirmed that from her experience, “many countries especially western countries will lend the necessary support to our missions abroad during the elections.”
8 October 2011 was named the day for a virtual invitation that was dispatched on Facebook to encourage Egyptians living abroad to demonstrate in front of the Egyptian Embassies and Consulates and in front of the Cabinet of Ministers in Cairo to support the droit de vote pour les egyptiens expatries. They called for sending committees to speedily issue national identity cards to the expats, amend the law for political rights, establishing mechanisms to allow Egyptian expats to vote. An official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “there was only one demonstration that took place in front of the Egyptian Embassy in Washington D.C.”
Egyptian expats are interested in voting in the upcoming elections and they don’t feel alienated from their home country or its problems, Ayman Tarshouby from Australia, said, “it is a matter of dignity and pride. When finally Egyptians get the right to be heard, it is important that all should be heard without depriving part of the community from that right.” Others from Canada, United States and Japan agreed on their eagerness to vote in the upcoming elections. Some are already checking with embassies and consulates as to when they will vote. They confirmed that Living abroad doesn’t make them alienated from their homeland and regardless of their status; students, professionals or investors, they believed that they have an inalienable right to vote and have a say in their country’s future. On the other hand, they confirmed that the Egyptian expats will be so disappointed in the absence of allowing them to vote and they made it clear that the onus of the blame will be borne by Ministry of Foreign Affairs represented in the embassies and consulates abroad, because few will understand the exact mechanism within the government to allow Egyptians living abroad to vote.
The number of Egyptians living abroad is approximately between 7 to 8 million people. Around 74% of them live in Arab countries while 26% live in Western countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Moreover, the remittances of Egyptians abroad are an important asset to the economy of Egypt. According to a report by the Central Bank of Egypt, remittances of Egyptians abroad increased from 9.8 billion USD in the fiscal year 2009/2010 to 12.6 billion USD in 2010/2011. Despite their contribution to the economy of their origin, the issue of allowing Egyptians abroad to vote has been subject to debate for a long time and no conclusion was reached so far. One expat from Japan said that while Egypt is seeking their support to reconstruct Egypt and invest in the country after the revolution, it will be so difficult to show real interest and solidarity while deprived from their right to vote in elections.
SCAF issued message number 49 in April 2011 to confirm that no decision is taken to ban Egyptian expats from voting as claimed through the media. Later, in September General Mamdouh Shaheen, Assistant Minister of Defence and Member of CSFA confirmed the legitimacy of the call of the expats to vote, but he spoke of the difficulty that SCAF can’t assign a judge to monitor elections in every place where the Egyptian Expats reside and it is not possible to hold elections without judicial supervision. He said that it is necessary to look into different options to solve this issue. Summing up, he stated that all the issues relating to voting rights of Egyptian abroad and other matters regarding elections are all within the competence of the Supreme Committee for Elections and not within the competence of SCAF.
Moreover, Officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that to grant the Egyptian expats that right, it requires a decision from the Supreme Committee for Elections. At the same time, Justice Abd El Moez Ibrahim, Chief of the Cairo Court of Appeal and Chair of the Supreme Committee for Elections stated that Egyptian expats voting requires a sovereign decision and it is not within the competence of the Committee to issue it.
Commenting on these contradictory statements, Dr. Gamal Soltan, analyst and Lecturer of Politics at the American University in Cairo said that “he believes that the supreme leadership in the army is troubled to take a decision that will change the familiar electoral base that it knows because the predictability will be jeopardized. Hence, this will limit the effects of the supreme leadership on the process.” He added, “There are so many political views and contradictory analysis about the issue, nevertheless, the comments is an attempt by SCAF to run away from the responsibility and hurl it to others. The others know that the decision is out of their domain and the statement by the Supreme Committee for Elections leads to the embarrassment of SCAF.”
Mr. Soltan also spoke of the difficulties that the Government may encounter in order to guarantee the assistance of the host states where there are big numbers of Egyptian expatriates, he said “in the lack of studies about the issue, hypothetically, some states may not welcome the move, especially in the Gulf where there is a big Egyptian community and the supreme ideology is conservative.” He added that “Egypt is passing though difficult unusual times and the upcoming elections are very important not only for Egyptians, but also internationally and regionally. Hence, a pertinent question arises on how far the host states will not interfere in the electoral process which may further the uncertainty of the outcome. Moreover, legitimacy issues may arise due to the difference between host States, not with regard to casting the vote as such but in the political differences and how far this will affect the legality of the process.” Confirming this view, A Diplomat from a Gulf States stated that “cooperation may not be granted by some Gulf States to the Egyptian embassies and consulates, for 2 main reasons, the fear of huge blocks of Egyptians gathering in one place which may cause not only logistical but security problems and may lead to clashes between them and the authority representatives who will assist in organizing the process. The other aspect is the fear in some conservative societies of spreading the culture of elections among their nationals, bearing in mind the big numbers of Egyptians in comparison to the westerners who vote in their embassies in the Gulf Countries.”
One hypothetical issue the Dr. Soltan has raised and no one spoke of so far the issue of “no tax, no representation,” which states that if one is not a tax payer or evade paying taxes then one shouldn’t have a say in the representation in the country. Expats commenting on this point stated, “Most of those who don’t pay taxes in Egypt evade it because they don’t find a true justification for it, although they pay high taxes to the foreign governments of the states they live in. They do the latter because; they get services in return to their taxes from good health care, to education to others, which is different than the situation in Egypt. Furthermore, if in Egypt, voters are not deprived from that right whether they pay their taxes or not, then the expats should be granted the same right.”
One official from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that “the right of expats to vote is indisputable and it should be organized to take place, but MFA is an implementer and not a decision maker in the matter.” she added, “it is feasible to open the door for expats to vote in elections but there will be a need to gather full information about the exact numbers of Egyptians who have the right to vote in every country, Consular missions and embassies will need to visit Egyptian blocks in collaboration with the local authorities, in order to reach out to people and build confidence among them in the process. This will require support for; the human resources available at the missions, financial and security support. Logistical support will also be required; to issue the national identity card to the expats, unless they will be allowed to use their passports and the machines to count the votes.” She also confirmed that from her experience, “many countries especially western countries will lend the necessary support to our missions abroad during the elections.”
exchange of prisoners between Hamas in Gaza
On 11 October 2011 a final deal of exchange of prisoners between Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli Government took place with Egyptian Mediation efforts. The deal marked a success on behalf of the interim government of Egypt. An Israeli soldier, Gilat Shalit, then 19, was abducted on 25 June 2006 by a joint force of Palestinian militants who tunnelled under the Gaza-Israel border, ambushing an Israeli army post. He stayed in captivation for almost 5 years by Hamas. In exchange for Shalit, Israel agreed to release 1027 Palestinian prisoners, among them leaders in Hamas. The first stage of the swap took place on 18 October 2011 when Israel released 477 Palestinian prisoners when Shalit physically reached Israel. While agreeing to release these prisoners, Israel pledged to lift the long lived siege on the Gaza Strip.
If the deal is considered a success to both Hamas and Israel, it might be seen at representing a shift in the Egyptian leadership in the Palestinian Cause. Ismail Hanya, the Chief of the dismissed Palestinian Government in Gaza, thanked the revolutionary Egypt for its role in leading the negotiations and assuming the responsibility of the Great Egypt in sponsoring the Palestinian will.
While attempting to figure out the implications of the Shalit deal on the internal affairs of Egypt and the posture of its interim government on all levels; nationally, regionally and internationally, Mr Ahmed Tohamy, a researcher in the school of Government and International affairs at Durham University, he confirmed, “the timing of the execution of the deal was chosen prudently by all parties, not only Hamas and Israel but also the Egyptian mediator. The timing was good; for Netanyahu who is seeking internal legitimacy to face the criticism of the left against his neoliberal policies and the threats to the Israeli national security especially after the tensions with turkey, for Hamas who is seeking legitimacy over Fatah after the attempt to have a full membership at the UN. As for the Egyptian party, we discover that the timing coincided with the events in Maspero. Yet, he said it is somehow difficult to consider that this coincidence was meant to happen, but it was used to the best. The new Egyptian system that was formed after the revolution aspires for building new popular legitimacy in order to better the image of SCAF internally and externally. The pending issues like Shalit Case presented an opportunity to turn it into gains and new legitimacy in the internal affairs.” He stated, “negotiations process of that issue requires a long time and from a theoretical and historical perspectives the Arab Israeli conflict was always an important tool in affecting the internal affairs; whether to gain popular legitimacy through assembling the people behind the political leadership as long as it faces an external threat or through insinuating that amazing achievements on the external affairs that relatively cover up the failure in the internal policies.”
Moreover, when considering the effect of the deal on the Egyptian role in the Palestinian quest, Mr. Tohamy said, “after the 25th of January revolution, the Egyptian politics is attempting to play an active role in the Arab-Israeli conflict, which bestows upon it internal legitimacy and covers up the internal failures and regardless of the fact that the Palestinian Cause is an issue of national security for Egypt, but it is also used to bring popular support.” He added, “This was evident in the Egyptian efforts to bring into fruition the national reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas on one hand, and the prisoners deal on the other. In fact, Cairo wants to get rid of the bad reputation it has acquired during Mubarak’s ruling that it has been in complicity with Israel and wants to build a new role as a partner to the Palestinian party that can play the effective role of moderating between it and Israel.”
He stressed, “The United States and Israel need an active Egyptian role in that cause and there is an international strategic decision to support the Egyptian regime and SCAF. This was evident in the persistence to prevent the escalation of tension after storming the Israeli embassy in Cairo and the Israeli apology for the killing of the Egyptian soldiers on the borders and a blind eye was turned on many of the internal policies.” He added, “this role became more crucial especially after the Syrian revolt and the decline in the Syrian role in supporting the Palestinian opposition, which is also an important factor in bringing Hamas to the negotiating terms and is changing their hostility with Mubarak’s regime to a more partnership terms with the new regime in Egypt to the point of negotiating opening an office to represent Hamas in Cairo. This is serving the latter in seeking the approval of the Islamist factions in Egypt.” From her point of view, Sherine Elghatit, Professor of Political Science at AUC, “the attack on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo was directed against the Egyptian Government more than Israel. People were mad at the interim government for not taking a strong stand towards the death of the Egyptian soldiers. As for the exchange of Prisoners, the timing was a surprise. But it says a lot about the Israeli policies in the wake of the Arab Spring and the realization that things won’t be always on their own terms, they had to find a another way to proceed that is why we have witnessed such rapid developments on that front.”
As for the Security in Sinai, Mr. Tohamy stated, “in the recent years, Sinai is suffering from strategic and security vacuum, which comprises a predicament to all parties. This situation tempts many of the Salafist, Jihadist, regional and international security services to play an active role in Sinai. The recent incidents with the continuous attacks on the gas pipelines, the violence in Arish and Eilat operations all indicate the presence of new players in the Peninsula. This dilemma stems from the Peace Treaty of 1979 that restricts the Egyptian freedom in deploying more troops in Sinai. Yet, the negative impacts of these incidents on Israeli interests and security make the Israeli government, though hesitant, more open to negotiations aiming at increasing the Egyptian Army troops there. Moreover, a friendly Hamas will collaborate with Egypt in order to control the passage of Jihadist members from Gaza into Sinai. Hence, we can consider the last breakthroughs a shift in the Egyptian policy toward Hamas, but it is early to judge its parameters. And to sum up, the last events took place because of the interests involved to the other parties, not only the Egyptian efforts and definitely, if the internal situation in Egypt is more solid, we would achieve much more in our external affairs.”
If the deal is considered a success to both Hamas and Israel, it might be seen at representing a shift in the Egyptian leadership in the Palestinian Cause. Ismail Hanya, the Chief of the dismissed Palestinian Government in Gaza, thanked the revolutionary Egypt for its role in leading the negotiations and assuming the responsibility of the Great Egypt in sponsoring the Palestinian will.
While attempting to figure out the implications of the Shalit deal on the internal affairs of Egypt and the posture of its interim government on all levels; nationally, regionally and internationally, Mr Ahmed Tohamy, a researcher in the school of Government and International affairs at Durham University, he confirmed, “the timing of the execution of the deal was chosen prudently by all parties, not only Hamas and Israel but also the Egyptian mediator. The timing was good; for Netanyahu who is seeking internal legitimacy to face the criticism of the left against his neoliberal policies and the threats to the Israeli national security especially after the tensions with turkey, for Hamas who is seeking legitimacy over Fatah after the attempt to have a full membership at the UN. As for the Egyptian party, we discover that the timing coincided with the events in Maspero. Yet, he said it is somehow difficult to consider that this coincidence was meant to happen, but it was used to the best. The new Egyptian system that was formed after the revolution aspires for building new popular legitimacy in order to better the image of SCAF internally and externally. The pending issues like Shalit Case presented an opportunity to turn it into gains and new legitimacy in the internal affairs.” He stated, “negotiations process of that issue requires a long time and from a theoretical and historical perspectives the Arab Israeli conflict was always an important tool in affecting the internal affairs; whether to gain popular legitimacy through assembling the people behind the political leadership as long as it faces an external threat or through insinuating that amazing achievements on the external affairs that relatively cover up the failure in the internal policies.”
Moreover, when considering the effect of the deal on the Egyptian role in the Palestinian quest, Mr. Tohamy said, “after the 25th of January revolution, the Egyptian politics is attempting to play an active role in the Arab-Israeli conflict, which bestows upon it internal legitimacy and covers up the internal failures and regardless of the fact that the Palestinian Cause is an issue of national security for Egypt, but it is also used to bring popular support.” He added, “This was evident in the Egyptian efforts to bring into fruition the national reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas on one hand, and the prisoners deal on the other. In fact, Cairo wants to get rid of the bad reputation it has acquired during Mubarak’s ruling that it has been in complicity with Israel and wants to build a new role as a partner to the Palestinian party that can play the effective role of moderating between it and Israel.”
He stressed, “The United States and Israel need an active Egyptian role in that cause and there is an international strategic decision to support the Egyptian regime and SCAF. This was evident in the persistence to prevent the escalation of tension after storming the Israeli embassy in Cairo and the Israeli apology for the killing of the Egyptian soldiers on the borders and a blind eye was turned on many of the internal policies.” He added, “this role became more crucial especially after the Syrian revolt and the decline in the Syrian role in supporting the Palestinian opposition, which is also an important factor in bringing Hamas to the negotiating terms and is changing their hostility with Mubarak’s regime to a more partnership terms with the new regime in Egypt to the point of negotiating opening an office to represent Hamas in Cairo. This is serving the latter in seeking the approval of the Islamist factions in Egypt.” From her point of view, Sherine Elghatit, Professor of Political Science at AUC, “the attack on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo was directed against the Egyptian Government more than Israel. People were mad at the interim government for not taking a strong stand towards the death of the Egyptian soldiers. As for the exchange of Prisoners, the timing was a surprise. But it says a lot about the Israeli policies in the wake of the Arab Spring and the realization that things won’t be always on their own terms, they had to find a another way to proceed that is why we have witnessed such rapid developments on that front.”
As for the Security in Sinai, Mr. Tohamy stated, “in the recent years, Sinai is suffering from strategic and security vacuum, which comprises a predicament to all parties. This situation tempts many of the Salafist, Jihadist, regional and international security services to play an active role in Sinai. The recent incidents with the continuous attacks on the gas pipelines, the violence in Arish and Eilat operations all indicate the presence of new players in the Peninsula. This dilemma stems from the Peace Treaty of 1979 that restricts the Egyptian freedom in deploying more troops in Sinai. Yet, the negative impacts of these incidents on Israeli interests and security make the Israeli government, though hesitant, more open to negotiations aiming at increasing the Egyptian Army troops there. Moreover, a friendly Hamas will collaborate with Egypt in order to control the passage of Jihadist members from Gaza into Sinai. Hence, we can consider the last breakthroughs a shift in the Egyptian policy toward Hamas, but it is early to judge its parameters. And to sum up, the last events took place because of the interests involved to the other parties, not only the Egyptian efforts and definitely, if the internal situation in Egypt is more solid, we would achieve much more in our external affairs.”
“Secretive” Constitutional Declaration "
Egypt has witnessed a new Constitutional Declaration when SCAF issued a “Secretive” Constitutional Declaration on the 25th of February 2011. They said it is complementary to the previous Declarations issued to regulate steering the administration of the Republic until the people of Egypt elect a new Parliament and a new president.
This declaration consisted of one provision dealing with the electoral process and it addressed the allocation of seats in both houses of the parliament ( the people’s assembly and the Shoura Council). Under this provision, two thirds of seats of the People's Assembly and the Shura Council would be filled under the proportional list system and one third of seats will filled through the individual system.
SCAF issued the declaration and published it in the official gazette in isolation from all political forces in the country, which eventually lead to widespread condemnation from some of them as stated in Elmasry Elyoum newspaper on 28 September 2011 that “They (referring to SCAF) added that the decision to restrict publication of the declaration to the Official Gazette reflects a state of confusion within the military council. “They cannot just publish it without putting it up for a political dialogue,” said Mohamed al-Qassas of the Islamist Egyptian Trend Party.
While on the other hand, General Mamdouh Shaheen Assistant Minister of Defence for Legal Affairs and Member of SCAF stated to the Ahram Gate on the 30th of September that there was a need for this declaration because the previous declarations do not allow a change in the proportions allocated between those elected on the list and those elected as individuals. Moreover, he added that SCAF has an absolute power to issue constitutional declarations during the transitional period.
Now, Egypt had so far three constitutional declarations issued since the revolt of January 2011. The first Declaration was issued directly on 13th of February 2011 after the announcement that Mubarak had given up power and delegated SCAF to take over running the country until a new government is formed, the second Declaration was issued on the 31st of March 2011 after a public referendum that approved amendments to the 1971 Constitution which was already put on hold at the time. Hence, this dilemma presents several questions, whether the second constitution was legal or not? Is it true that SCAF has absolute power to issue declarations during the transitional period? What are the consequences of all these changes on the political, legal and economic situation of the country?
While seeking answers to these questions, Professor Sherine Elghatit from the Political Science Department at AUC stated that the main characteristic of a government in transition that it should only confine itself to the role of a care taker government. Therefore, it works in accordance with the existing laws and regulations because there are no legitimate legislative institutions in place. However, in the case of Egypt, the Consecutive Constitutional Declarations failed to set a time frame to the transitional period. Furthermore, it has granted SCAF the absolute power to issue decrees of laws without any restrictions to the types of legislation they can issue or with regard to their substance. In fact, this is in contradiction with the revolutionary legitimacy that requires confining the promulgation of laws to those that represent the will of the revolutionary people. This further entails that these laws are those concerned with the upcoming elections only, like the electoral and parties laws.”
She added, “Concerning the consecutive Constitutional Declarations, the Egyptian people were dragged to the referendum without real use or benefit to the democratic process. Furthermore, the legitimacy of the Second Constitutional Declaration is subject to doubts because it has altered the will of the people. ”
As for the consequences of these measures on the situation of Egypt, she stated “Granting SCAF absolute power to issue legislation without any restrictions leads to a worrisome legal and political situation. It opens the door to amend any of the existing legislation in education, health, personal Status, commerce, tourism and others, which freezes the flow of investments into Egypt, because the foreign and local investors are uncertain to what may take place between one day and another. Hence, unfortunately the poor and not the rich people will be the most affected by that situation. They will lose their jobs and they won’t find a substitute because no new jobs are created in the absence of the flow of investments. Furthermore, if the legal uncertainty phase is prolonged we will witness further deterioration and more investments that will close down and pull out of the Egyptian market.”
This declaration consisted of one provision dealing with the electoral process and it addressed the allocation of seats in both houses of the parliament ( the people’s assembly and the Shoura Council). Under this provision, two thirds of seats of the People's Assembly and the Shura Council would be filled under the proportional list system and one third of seats will filled through the individual system.
SCAF issued the declaration and published it in the official gazette in isolation from all political forces in the country, which eventually lead to widespread condemnation from some of them as stated in Elmasry Elyoum newspaper on 28 September 2011 that “They (referring to SCAF) added that the decision to restrict publication of the declaration to the Official Gazette reflects a state of confusion within the military council. “They cannot just publish it without putting it up for a political dialogue,” said Mohamed al-Qassas of the Islamist Egyptian Trend Party.
While on the other hand, General Mamdouh Shaheen Assistant Minister of Defence for Legal Affairs and Member of SCAF stated to the Ahram Gate on the 30th of September that there was a need for this declaration because the previous declarations do not allow a change in the proportions allocated between those elected on the list and those elected as individuals. Moreover, he added that SCAF has an absolute power to issue constitutional declarations during the transitional period.
Now, Egypt had so far three constitutional declarations issued since the revolt of January 2011. The first Declaration was issued directly on 13th of February 2011 after the announcement that Mubarak had given up power and delegated SCAF to take over running the country until a new government is formed, the second Declaration was issued on the 31st of March 2011 after a public referendum that approved amendments to the 1971 Constitution which was already put on hold at the time. Hence, this dilemma presents several questions, whether the second constitution was legal or not? Is it true that SCAF has absolute power to issue declarations during the transitional period? What are the consequences of all these changes on the political, legal and economic situation of the country?
While seeking answers to these questions, Professor Sherine Elghatit from the Political Science Department at AUC stated that the main characteristic of a government in transition that it should only confine itself to the role of a care taker government. Therefore, it works in accordance with the existing laws and regulations because there are no legitimate legislative institutions in place. However, in the case of Egypt, the Consecutive Constitutional Declarations failed to set a time frame to the transitional period. Furthermore, it has granted SCAF the absolute power to issue decrees of laws without any restrictions to the types of legislation they can issue or with regard to their substance. In fact, this is in contradiction with the revolutionary legitimacy that requires confining the promulgation of laws to those that represent the will of the revolutionary people. This further entails that these laws are those concerned with the upcoming elections only, like the electoral and parties laws.”
She added, “Concerning the consecutive Constitutional Declarations, the Egyptian people were dragged to the referendum without real use or benefit to the democratic process. Furthermore, the legitimacy of the Second Constitutional Declaration is subject to doubts because it has altered the will of the people. ”
As for the consequences of these measures on the situation of Egypt, she stated “Granting SCAF absolute power to issue legislation without any restrictions leads to a worrisome legal and political situation. It opens the door to amend any of the existing legislation in education, health, personal Status, commerce, tourism and others, which freezes the flow of investments into Egypt, because the foreign and local investors are uncertain to what may take place between one day and another. Hence, unfortunately the poor and not the rich people will be the most affected by that situation. They will lose their jobs and they won’t find a substitute because no new jobs are created in the absence of the flow of investments. Furthermore, if the legal uncertainty phase is prolonged we will witness further deterioration and more investments that will close down and pull out of the Egyptian market.”
The Salemy’s Document 2011
While the elections are approaching, a heated ongoing debate is taking place on another attempt to issue a new document for Supra Constitutional Principles came to light last week by the Deputy Prime Minister, Dr. Ali Elselmy.
The Salemy’s Document addressed rights and freedoms and also granted the Military a prominent position in the new constitution; Articles 9 and 10 put the Military as the sole guarantor of the constitutional legitimacy in the country, its budget shall be confidential and not to be discussed in the Parliament. Moreover, the Document attempted to lay criteria for choosing the 100 members of the Constitutional Assembly, 80% of them will be chosen and only 20% left to the Parliament to. After concerns rose by political factions, on 14 November, Dr. Elselmy deleted from Article 9 and 10 that the Army is the sole guarantor of the constitution and its budget will be reviewed by the National Security Council chaired by the president.
On Sunday 13 November, the Democratic Coalition for Egypt met in the premises of the freedom and justice party to discuss the document and issued a statement agreeing to abide by the Al Azhar document, confirming that the Constitutional Assembly should encompass all factions in the community and that issues of the Military that concerns the national security should be taken into consideration while drafting the new constitution. Commenting on this Statement, Mr. Abu ElEla Mady, the Chief of ElWasat Party, that shared in drafting the Statement, stated that the Coalition agreed with most of the articles of the Document, except for articles 9 and 10. He ensured, “the Armed Forces, as part of the executive branch of the State has to abide by the Constitution and the law and its budget has to be discussed by the Parliament in confidential meetings as is the case democratic systems.”
Mr. Shahir George, Member of Egypt Freedom Party who is running in the upcoming elections as part of the Coalition of the Revolution Continues, stated, “we are against granting the Military immunity or granting it rights in choosing the members of the Constitutional Assembly. The amendment to review the military budget by the National Security Council is a good step, yet the target should be its revision by the Parliament. The timing of the Document is bad due to the proximity to the elections.” He confirmed, “we support a consensus guidelines Document with the approval of the Egyptian people in a referendum. Parliament members should choose the members of the Assembly whether from among them or outside. but we are against any imposition of certain members by SCAF.” Dr. Dina Shehata, Senior Researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies stressed that the problem lied in the process. Dr. Elselmy prepared Constitutional Principles in the absence of any dialogue with political factions in a manner of “take it or leave it”. Furthermore, Dr. Shehata said, “it is not foreseen that the new constitution will come out without granting the military immunities, but it comes up as a compromise not enforced by the Government.” Also, Dr. Samer Soliman, Founding Member of the Egyptian Democratic Social Party, agreed that there process is the problem. He said, “the party refuses any a political role for the Military. We are against any military or religious state and contrary to the Islamite factions, we believe that drafting the constitution should not be left to the faction with the majority in the parliament.” He added, “we can agree to a consensus document that guarantees the political rights and democracy, with guarantees that all will abide by it.” He confirmed, “the amendments are steps in the right direction towards our goals. Islamite factions predict that they will gain the majority in the parliament and they want to dominate writing the new constitution. They endorsed the Azhar document because of its general nature.”
Commenting on the whole difference, Professor Ezzedine Fishere of AUC said “liberals want a document to serve as a guarantee to respect democracy and freedoms. This is the most important factor for them because it helps alleviate their worries from the Islamite factions. On the contrary, Islamite factions don’t want to give any concessions hoping that they will win the majority so they’ve more space to maneuver. In fact, Islamite factions agreed to join forces with other political factions in opposing the expansion of the role of the military isolate SCAF and the Government predicting that this fight may kill the document. However, if the liberals agreed to the document then the Islamite factions will be left alone. By all means, this document is not the right place to discuss the role of the Military, SCAF is still in power and we have ample time to discuss this issue at length.”
The Salemy’s Document addressed rights and freedoms and also granted the Military a prominent position in the new constitution; Articles 9 and 10 put the Military as the sole guarantor of the constitutional legitimacy in the country, its budget shall be confidential and not to be discussed in the Parliament. Moreover, the Document attempted to lay criteria for choosing the 100 members of the Constitutional Assembly, 80% of them will be chosen and only 20% left to the Parliament to. After concerns rose by political factions, on 14 November, Dr. Elselmy deleted from Article 9 and 10 that the Army is the sole guarantor of the constitution and its budget will be reviewed by the National Security Council chaired by the president.
On Sunday 13 November, the Democratic Coalition for Egypt met in the premises of the freedom and justice party to discuss the document and issued a statement agreeing to abide by the Al Azhar document, confirming that the Constitutional Assembly should encompass all factions in the community and that issues of the Military that concerns the national security should be taken into consideration while drafting the new constitution. Commenting on this Statement, Mr. Abu ElEla Mady, the Chief of ElWasat Party, that shared in drafting the Statement, stated that the Coalition agreed with most of the articles of the Document, except for articles 9 and 10. He ensured, “the Armed Forces, as part of the executive branch of the State has to abide by the Constitution and the law and its budget has to be discussed by the Parliament in confidential meetings as is the case democratic systems.”
Mr. Shahir George, Member of Egypt Freedom Party who is running in the upcoming elections as part of the Coalition of the Revolution Continues, stated, “we are against granting the Military immunity or granting it rights in choosing the members of the Constitutional Assembly. The amendment to review the military budget by the National Security Council is a good step, yet the target should be its revision by the Parliament. The timing of the Document is bad due to the proximity to the elections.” He confirmed, “we support a consensus guidelines Document with the approval of the Egyptian people in a referendum. Parliament members should choose the members of the Assembly whether from among them or outside. but we are against any imposition of certain members by SCAF.” Dr. Dina Shehata, Senior Researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies stressed that the problem lied in the process. Dr. Elselmy prepared Constitutional Principles in the absence of any dialogue with political factions in a manner of “take it or leave it”. Furthermore, Dr. Shehata said, “it is not foreseen that the new constitution will come out without granting the military immunities, but it comes up as a compromise not enforced by the Government.” Also, Dr. Samer Soliman, Founding Member of the Egyptian Democratic Social Party, agreed that there process is the problem. He said, “the party refuses any a political role for the Military. We are against any military or religious state and contrary to the Islamite factions, we believe that drafting the constitution should not be left to the faction with the majority in the parliament.” He added, “we can agree to a consensus document that guarantees the political rights and democracy, with guarantees that all will abide by it.” He confirmed, “the amendments are steps in the right direction towards our goals. Islamite factions predict that they will gain the majority in the parliament and they want to dominate writing the new constitution. They endorsed the Azhar document because of its general nature.”
Commenting on the whole difference, Professor Ezzedine Fishere of AUC said “liberals want a document to serve as a guarantee to respect democracy and freedoms. This is the most important factor for them because it helps alleviate their worries from the Islamite factions. On the contrary, Islamite factions don’t want to give any concessions hoping that they will win the majority so they’ve more space to maneuver. In fact, Islamite factions agreed to join forces with other political factions in opposing the expansion of the role of the military isolate SCAF and the Government predicting that this fight may kill the document. However, if the liberals agreed to the document then the Islamite factions will be left alone. By all means, this document is not the right place to discuss the role of the Military, SCAF is still in power and we have ample time to discuss this issue at length.”
IMBABA
بعد أقل من 24 ساعة من نشر المقال حول خطوات الإصلاح الأمنى نشبت معارك فى منطقة إمبابة بين المسلمين والأقباط فى المنطقة مما أسفر عن قتلى وجرحى وتحول المكان إلى منطقة حرب حتى فجر اليوم التالى بعد تدخل القوات الأمنية بعنف لفض الإشتباك، مما أدى إلى أن انتابنى الشعور بأننى "أنفخ فى قربة مقطوعة"، وبدأ نوع من اليأس والإحباط يندس فى مخيلتى واسترجعت مقولة زعيم الأمة سعد زغلول عن مرضه إن "مفيش فايدة"، إلا أن رؤية ما يحدث على كورنيش النيل أمام مبنى الإذاعة والتلفزيون بماسبيرو وانتشار الأمن المركزى لتأمين المتظاهرين جعلنى استحضر ما قاله نابليون بأن "مفيش مستحيل".
وبالفعل أنا على قناعة تامة بأن مفيش مستحيل وأن الوضع الأمنى سوف يتحسن بعد تدهور، حتى مع توقع المزيد، إلا أن تحسين الوضع الأمنى يقتضى وبلا جدال إلى جانب إصلاح القطاع الأمنى تكريس مفهوم سيادة القانون من قبل الجميع، المواطنين والقائمين على تنفيذ القانون. فى الوضع المصرى الراهن، نحن فى أمس حاجة لتنفيذ قانون العقوبات والقوانين الأخرى المرتبطة بها وغيرها من القوانين الخاصة بالحفاظ على الأمن العام فى البلاد.
وبالفعل أنا على قناعة تامة بأن مفيش مستحيل وأن الوضع الأمنى سوف يتحسن بعد تدهور، حتى مع توقع المزيد، إلا أن تحسين الوضع الأمنى يقتضى وبلا جدال إلى جانب إصلاح القطاع الأمنى تكريس مفهوم سيادة القانون من قبل الجميع، المواطنين والقائمين على تنفيذ القانون. فى الوضع المصرى الراهن، نحن فى أمس حاجة لتنفيذ قانون العقوبات والقوانين الأخرى المرتبطة بها وغيرها من القوانين الخاصة بالحفاظ على الأمن العام فى البلاد.
EU Parliament Decision on Maspero incident 2011
Protection of Freedom of Religions and rights of minorities or interference in the internal affairs of the State, within those parameters the EU Parliament passed a draft resolution which was the last in many measures taken by the International Community as a response to a protest against religious discrimination turned into a bloodbath in Maspero Area in Cairo on 9 October 2011.
The EU Parliament, On 27 October 2011, passed a draft resolution on the situation in Egypt and Syria, in particular the Christian Minorities. The resolution strongly condemned the killing of protestors in Egypt, expressed solidarity with the Egyptian people in their struggle for democracy, while noting that since March 2011 tens of thousands of Copts have reportedly left Egypt called upon SCAF to put an end to the emergency law, as it violates the rights of freedom of expression, association and assembly and urged the Egyptian Government and authorities to put an end without delay to military trials of civilians.
In her address to the Parliament, Catherine Ashton, Vice-President of the Commission/High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy stated, “We were all shocked and appalled by the violence against a peaceful demonstration by the Coptic Christian community that led to the death of 25 people, with more than 300 injured.
These clashes run contrary to the whole spirit and goals of the revolution and the aspirations of all Egyptians – of all backgrounds and beliefs.” She added, “I made a statement calling for calm and restraint and an investigation so that those responsible for the violence can be brought to justice.
I urged and I urged the authorities to protect the right to demonstrate peacefully, and the right to freedom of religion or belief – one of the most fundamental of all human rights.” Commenting on this, a Diplomat from a European who deals with EU Parliament matters, who preferred to stay anonymous, stated “the resolutions of the EU Parliament are recommendations and not mandatory. They are directed to the European Commission and the Member States. These resolutions are used more as public relations tool because in many incidents the views of the Parliament do not coincide with those of the Commission. They are more of political messages to States and not many implications on the EC relations with Egypt will take place at this stage based on that resolution.” Contrary to that, Ms Heba Morayef of Human Rights Watch confirmed that the impact of such resolutions should not be underestimated because although they are non-binding, the resolutions of the EU Parliament have impact on the EC and policies of its member States. “The Parliament is pushing its Member States to be adopt a more robust approach with regard to supporting Democracy and Human Rights.”
While this is not the first time the EU Parliament tackled the issue of human rights in Egypt, freedom of expression as well as the rights of minorities, but this was comprehensible under the Mubarak regime. The Mubarak regime and its repressive approaches were behind the 25th of January revolt and they have always refused such resolutions as contradictory to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of States. Yet, reflecting that no change has taken place so far, the surprise in Ashton’s address was in relation to the situation after the revolution. This surprise is shared by many human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, who called for accountability to those who were behind killing the peaceful demonstrators. Ambassador Fathy El Shazly, Former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for European Affairs, contradicted the views of many officials that the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of States is absolute. He stated, “Egypt must respect human rights and freedoms in order to avoid any criticism from the international community. The era of absolute power of the state against its citizens is over and States should not be left to torture and violate the human rights of citizens without accountability. It is time for a clear law to regulate the issue of places of worship. Building churches illegally is not appropriate, but the lack of necessary regulations to build places of warship is a problem. If we solve the problem, Egypt will not be subject to international criticism.” He added, “We cannot adopt two standards, Egypt was a locomotive in the Organisation of Islamic Conference in order to have international intervention to save the Muslim minorities in Bosnia and Kosovo against the oppression of the Yugoslav regime at the time. Hence, we should set our internal affairs in place in order to avoid international accountability.” Ms Morayef stressed that the continuation of discrimination against Christians with regard to the building and renovation of their places of worship leads to the violations. She added, “In the last 4 years, incidents of sectarian violence were all concerning building legally unauthorized churches. Recently, the government acknowledged that this issue should be solved through the unified law for places of worship to replace the ancient law that is still in force until now. Moreover, the continuation of the unfair law will lead to further breaches to it by building other unauthorized churches.”
In Egypt in the aftermath of the incident, SCAF requested the Government, on 10 October 2011, to establish an independent commission of inquiry in order to investigate the events and supposedly bring those accountable to justice. In the evening of the same day, the Government established the Commission and issued decisions with regard to the speedy conclusion of the unified law for warship places and amendments to the Penal Code to consider discrimination as a crime. Moreover, the Supreme Council for Human Rights has established another independent Commission of inquiry in the Maspero incidents. Both reports are expected to be published by the end of the week. Ms Morayef confirmed that a problem exists in all the incidents of using disproportionate violence against peaceful demonstrators, not only the Christian demonstrators in Maspero, and the lack of accountability to those who do that. This constitutes a clear violation to the rule of law and provides impunity to the perpetrators. She confirmed, “The way the state has been dealing with incidents of sectarian violence is not satisfactory. We didn’t see indictments in all the incidents that took place since the church of the Two Saints explosion in Alexandria in Christmas last year, passing through Atfih, Embaba ElMenya and now waiting for the outcome of the Maspero inquiry. The rule of law and fighting impunity should replace the old policy of using sectarian violence to achieve political goals, while leaving the victims in a weaker position subject to vindication of their rights by the State.”
The EU Parliament, On 27 October 2011, passed a draft resolution on the situation in Egypt and Syria, in particular the Christian Minorities. The resolution strongly condemned the killing of protestors in Egypt, expressed solidarity with the Egyptian people in their struggle for democracy, while noting that since March 2011 tens of thousands of Copts have reportedly left Egypt called upon SCAF to put an end to the emergency law, as it violates the rights of freedom of expression, association and assembly and urged the Egyptian Government and authorities to put an end without delay to military trials of civilians.
In her address to the Parliament, Catherine Ashton, Vice-President of the Commission/High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy stated, “We were all shocked and appalled by the violence against a peaceful demonstration by the Coptic Christian community that led to the death of 25 people, with more than 300 injured.
These clashes run contrary to the whole spirit and goals of the revolution and the aspirations of all Egyptians – of all backgrounds and beliefs.” She added, “I made a statement calling for calm and restraint and an investigation so that those responsible for the violence can be brought to justice.
I urged and I urged the authorities to protect the right to demonstrate peacefully, and the right to freedom of religion or belief – one of the most fundamental of all human rights.” Commenting on this, a Diplomat from a European who deals with EU Parliament matters, who preferred to stay anonymous, stated “the resolutions of the EU Parliament are recommendations and not mandatory. They are directed to the European Commission and the Member States. These resolutions are used more as public relations tool because in many incidents the views of the Parliament do not coincide with those of the Commission. They are more of political messages to States and not many implications on the EC relations with Egypt will take place at this stage based on that resolution.” Contrary to that, Ms Heba Morayef of Human Rights Watch confirmed that the impact of such resolutions should not be underestimated because although they are non-binding, the resolutions of the EU Parliament have impact on the EC and policies of its member States. “The Parliament is pushing its Member States to be adopt a more robust approach with regard to supporting Democracy and Human Rights.”
While this is not the first time the EU Parliament tackled the issue of human rights in Egypt, freedom of expression as well as the rights of minorities, but this was comprehensible under the Mubarak regime. The Mubarak regime and its repressive approaches were behind the 25th of January revolt and they have always refused such resolutions as contradictory to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of States. Yet, reflecting that no change has taken place so far, the surprise in Ashton’s address was in relation to the situation after the revolution. This surprise is shared by many human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, who called for accountability to those who were behind killing the peaceful demonstrators. Ambassador Fathy El Shazly, Former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for European Affairs, contradicted the views of many officials that the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of States is absolute. He stated, “Egypt must respect human rights and freedoms in order to avoid any criticism from the international community. The era of absolute power of the state against its citizens is over and States should not be left to torture and violate the human rights of citizens without accountability. It is time for a clear law to regulate the issue of places of worship. Building churches illegally is not appropriate, but the lack of necessary regulations to build places of warship is a problem. If we solve the problem, Egypt will not be subject to international criticism.” He added, “We cannot adopt two standards, Egypt was a locomotive in the Organisation of Islamic Conference in order to have international intervention to save the Muslim minorities in Bosnia and Kosovo against the oppression of the Yugoslav regime at the time. Hence, we should set our internal affairs in place in order to avoid international accountability.” Ms Morayef stressed that the continuation of discrimination against Christians with regard to the building and renovation of their places of worship leads to the violations. She added, “In the last 4 years, incidents of sectarian violence were all concerning building legally unauthorized churches. Recently, the government acknowledged that this issue should be solved through the unified law for places of worship to replace the ancient law that is still in force until now. Moreover, the continuation of the unfair law will lead to further breaches to it by building other unauthorized churches.”
In Egypt in the aftermath of the incident, SCAF requested the Government, on 10 October 2011, to establish an independent commission of inquiry in order to investigate the events and supposedly bring those accountable to justice. In the evening of the same day, the Government established the Commission and issued decisions with regard to the speedy conclusion of the unified law for warship places and amendments to the Penal Code to consider discrimination as a crime. Moreover, the Supreme Council for Human Rights has established another independent Commission of inquiry in the Maspero incidents. Both reports are expected to be published by the end of the week. Ms Morayef confirmed that a problem exists in all the incidents of using disproportionate violence against peaceful demonstrators, not only the Christian demonstrators in Maspero, and the lack of accountability to those who do that. This constitutes a clear violation to the rule of law and provides impunity to the perpetrators. She confirmed, “The way the state has been dealing with incidents of sectarian violence is not satisfactory. We didn’t see indictments in all the incidents that took place since the church of the Two Saints explosion in Alexandria in Christmas last year, passing through Atfih, Embaba ElMenya and now waiting for the outcome of the Maspero inquiry. The rule of law and fighting impunity should replace the old policy of using sectarian violence to achieve political goals, while leaving the victims in a weaker position subject to vindication of their rights by the State.”
latest news!
In an unusual briefing evidently aimed at Washington, Gen. Mukhtar al-Mulla of the ruling council asserted that the initial results of elections for the People’s Assembly do not represent the full Egyptian public, in part because well-organized factions of Islamists were dominating the voting. The comments, to foreign reporters and not the Egyptian public, may have been intended to persuade Washington to back off its call for civilian rule.
hence... Tahrir is not representative of people .. parliament doesnt represent people.. who does? you ya ro7 mama ??
hence... Tahrir is not representative of people .. parliament doesnt represent people.. who does? you ya ro7 mama ??
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
THE RE-INCARNATION OF THE OLD REGIME IN EGYPT
THE RE-INCARNATION OF THE OLD REGIME IN EGYPT
Namira Negm
This constitutes a hypothetical assessment to the current situation in Egypt. The least we can describe it with is a lucid situation where no one knows what it will lead to in the next few years.
A Plan or no Plan:
A persistent question that did not leave my mind since SCAF assumed the responsibility of the State in February 2011, are they implementing a plan to get us out of the current situation or they only react to the acts that take place on a case by case basis. Many scholars and analysts differed in their point of views. Some believed that it is all an American plan and the road map for the transition has already been assembled with SCAF members with their counter parts in the pentagon. Others disagree and they believe that SCAF has no plan, the situation is overwhelming to the leaders of the army who stayed for ages away from the political scene and now they found themselves trapped between the people, the old oligarchy, the foreign interests and their personal interests. They have all been appointed by the ousted president and they worked under his command for decades, they won’t be interested to meet his fate or even close.With that in mind, it is a bit confusing…
however, the answer might not be a simple one but there are few elements to consider:
1. The point of unity during January- February 2011 was to put an end to a dictatorship. All factions gathered in the squares of Egypt in millions and the rest gathered in neighbourhood watch groups to protect themselves and their families from the thugs in the absence of Police forces. This was and still is a source of danger to whoever wants to rule Egypt through a Plan.
2. The Military leaders managed to get rid of the dictator.. i.e. siding with the People and became national heroes.. yet, the threat to their power is imminent if the point of unity remains in place.. so now it is time to DIVIDE AND RULE. A quick remedy that will not only split the people in trivial arguments and distract them from what I do, but also it will assist me in putting my house in order and stop any criticism that may arise for the military stepping into the scene with full force.
3. REFERENDUM: interesting enough.. all of us, as expected of course, were more than happy to cast our vote..Many of us knew at the time, that it is absurd to go for such referendum.. the split started between the Egyptians and we started to speak of law and politics and not Egypt… we started to debate:
a. The composition of the Committee.
b. The appropriateness of the timing.
c. The problems entailing amending a dead constitution and bringing it back to life.
d. Shall we draft a constitution first or elect a president and parliament first.\
e. A non-existent fuss over Article 2 regarding the Principles of Shari’af. Many other little details.
4. The Referendum was a brilliant tool to achieve the DIVIDE TO RULE… it worked.. and people thought they will get stability by saying YES… the outcome of the vote was 18 million turn out at polling stations.. lot of Media influence and good for calculating what can take place next.. in fact, the most sensitive issue that we voted for, consciously or unconsciously, that we gave SCAF full powers.. a blank sheet to run the country.. SCAF, in accordance with the Constitutional Declaration has the right to assume the powers of the President and the Legislative Power until both are elected. These powers were not met by any responsibility towards the people… i.e. no means of accountability… what is better than this for someone in the leadership position?!
5. Yet, another controversial issue that came out of the referendum was issuing the second Constitutional Declaration, which incorporated much more provisions than those that we voted on. Moreover, the ones that got green light in the referendum were changed in the Declaration, including that SCAF will be the one putting the new constitution to the people for a public referendum and not the newly elected President… interesting isn’t it?
6. Since then, things seemed to be back to normal and the people shushed anyone that complains because the Media brainwashed the people that stability and economic growth depends on ending demonstrations. They didn’t mention that as long as the Military Junta is in Power, there are doubts that stability will be brought into the political scene and that is one primary factor for investments and economic growth. Sporadic incidents took place all around the country due to the lack of security and rule of law implementation… yet, it was always the people that are blamed not the ones in power.
7. This was the situation until Maspero Massacre, which ignited lots of animosity and calls for SCAF to give up power. It was meant to take the shape of Muslim/Christian sectarian violence… but failed big time…yet, it did divide the people over who started and who killed who?
8. SCAF under pressure from all sides, internally and externally, decided to hold elections on time as planned. November will be the beginning of a 4 months daunting elections to elect members of the 2 houses of Parliament… regardless of the fact that SCAF members meet with political factions and then decide something else, which is another way to divide the players on the political scene, people were eager to go through the institutional legitimacy in order to get stability.
9. All of a sudden, under huge pressure, SCAF realized that it has committed a grave mistake by leaving everything in relation to the new constitution in the hands of civilians that will be elected in the Parliament… from the composition of the Assembly of the Constitution to the privileges and immunities of the Army. So, their remedy was ElSelmy’s Document… through the Deputy Prime Minister, a good tool to impose a document before elections and to divide and rule just before the elections… let’s see who can still mobilize the street against SCAF and let’s put all the political factions in clash again with each other depending on which interests are at stake.
10. So far, the outcome is one “Kandahar Friday” led by Islamists and as of the following Saturday all political factions asking SCAF to step down and give power to a civil council to run the interim period until we have a president.. brilliant situation through which it has divided the people further, managed to leave Islamists do their utmost to get the majority in the parliament and keep the idealist revolutionaries screaming in Tahrir and killed in Mohamed Mahmoud.. and, under the pretence it is for the sake of the Country, the elections will be held by hook or by crook on time… which it did!
11. Elections became a target and goal in the minds of people.. again this is what will bring us stability and guess what? Through our votes.. our voice will finally be heard.. so, people were also adamant to have elections to get rid of the dilemma that they don’t understand and they are mostly not part of it except through home discussions with family and friends. They forgot that elections is simply a tool through which people express what they want in order to reach a democratic system.. it is not democracy in itself.. but anyways.. it became as such for the moment.
12. Now, miraculously, the first phase of the elections is almost over, the run offs are going to be on Monday 5 December 2011 and another imposed legitimacy on the people are played so well. Tahrir is getting emptier and people are watching for the moment. The highest turn out in an election in the history of modern Egypt… and all is celebrating democracy… stability is near! And an end to the Military Junta ruling is close… until June 2012 and Egypt will be heading towards a better future!Now, is this part of a plan or not? I believe it is. The plan is reincarnating the old regime in new figures, names, political ideologies and through elections.
The diagram below shows who the parties of the plan are and I will describe how it works in my point of view:
SCAF
US PLAN
Polical Factions Islamist Factions
The Plan is an American one, this assumption is based on the following:
1. Naom Chomsky’s theory: the American interests in the region will be directly hampered by real democracy. The reason behind that is the growing sentiment of animosity towards the American policies in the region, especially after the Iraqi invasion, and its strategic alliance with Israel that proves always to be on top of the American Agenda in its dealing with the region. Moreover, we should not forget that although Egypt is not a wealthy oil nation, but it has the Suez Canal. Through its location, population, history and demography its power should not be taken lightly.
2. Tariq Ramadan, a Professor of Contemporary Islamic Studies at Oxford University, mentioned that the members of the youth movements, including some of the members of the 6th of April Movement and the role that Google played, through its support to Wael Ghoneim, showed that all of them in a way or another were used as part of the plan. May be they knew, maybe not… but the trainings abroad since the year 2000 to the members of the youth movements on how to gather people under one slogan and avoid contradictory issues in order to mobilize the masses, the service that Google provided to tweet over the phones in the absence of internet communication in Egypt was remarkable opposing to a refusal to provide similar service to the revolt in Syria.
3. SCAF members and the Egyptian institutions were not at all prepared to draw a proper plan. We are talking about a flawed system that used to work only to serve one person and his family later on for decades. Hence, the corruption is not only in financial or administrative aspects.. but it led to putting unfit people in certain positions… hence, it is very difficult to believe that the plan is all made within the borders of Egypt.
4. The United States have been sending delegations, researchers, scholars, NGOs.. all funded by different parts of the American system to conduct business in Egypt and do thorough research about every aspect of the human life in Egypt together with the involvement in its industry and economy. Hence, the US has enough information and studies in place to use when necessary to preserve its interests in Egypt.
5. The US is not the sole implementer of the Plan. It does that directly, through its contacts with SCAF members, Muslim Brotherhood and other Political players and indirectly through its allies in the region. After the Egyptian Revolt, we had a new Baghdad Pact forming against revolutions by Monarchies through the invitation addressed by the Gulf Cooperation Council to Morocco and Jordan to join. Funny enough that Jordan had a request pending to join the GCC for ages, and Morocco is way far from the vicinity of the Gulf… yet it is time to join forces to engulf the revolutions in the Arab Countries in order to preserve the powers of the Monarchs. Furthermore, this is evident from the financing of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain to the Salafis and Muslim Brotherhood. It will be naïve to assume that all the millions of dollars spent by the GCC members on specific sect, that lean more towards oppression rather than democracy, is done in isolation from a US laissez faire policy or upon direct approval of the US Government.
6. Mossad and CIA are not far from the work done on the ground undercover. In a lucid situation with lax security, time is ripe for those to conduct many of what they want in Egypt. Whether the latest news of arrest and deportation or putting into trial Israeli or American citizens are all based on solid information or not. Yet, some of them might be valid cases of espionage against the stability of Egypt.
7. Lack of leadership to the revolutionary forces ease up the job for all the internal and external players. It is easier to divide people without a leadership than those gathered behind one.
What is the content of the plan?Reincarnation of the old regime is the answer, how will this be done?
Through the following:
1. SCAF is concerned about keeping itself out of the trouble. Hence, all what most of these members care for is their safety and preserving their immunities and privileges. Since, they took over the country; they are working through Divide to Rule and issue bills to preserve their position and their colleagues who are now considered civilians. This amounts to impunity not only immunity. But they want to be away from any accountability before the people, whether when it comes to the Budget of the Military, their shares in 25% of the Egyptian Economy that no one knows to which extent it goes, their shares in public institutions, among which are; Heads of specialized Councils, Heads of Public Sector Companies, Governors, Ambassadors and others. Is this is preserved with the least amount of damage… well and good.. Preferable, but if not.. then they will fight for it.
2. Civilian Government and a Civilian President will be acceptable to SCAF as long as they will take one step backwards while keeping an eye on everything and preserving their interests. Hence, controlled democracy won’t hurt as long as the constitution either expressly gives them the powers of being the guarantors of the constitutional legitimacy and that the Military Budget is out of touch or at least implies that this will be the situation.
3. Following the reincarnation of the regime with new faces and even new ideologies will not hurt SCAF or affect it in anyway… and it will work well to preserve the interests of all those who see the revolution as a threat to their interests, whether the US, Israel or the Monarchies of the Gulf.
4. When another boiling point that was brining the second wave of the revolution to a success, SCAF in arrangements with the US, decided to react to this wave of the revolution by stating the following;
a. They are still supporting the revolution.
b. They are trying to keep the territorial integrity of the state.
c. Confirmation that SCAF doesn’t want to stay in power much longer than necessary.
d. They will change the government of Sharaf as the people want.
e. Elections will be held on time.f. Presidential election shall take place by the end June 2012.
5. With this, SCAF appealed to the general public to stop the bloodshed in Mohamed Mahmoud Street and to go for the elections that will bring a fair, democratically elected Parliament as a first step towards stability. The parliament will have the power to choose the 100 members of the Constitutional Assembly. Then we will have a Constitution and an elected President. SCAF will then leave the playground to the elected bodies and President to run the country and by then it would have fulfilled its perceived mandate.
6. Hence, we will have new figures.. people will celebrate democracy while at the same time. It will change nothing except limited things.
The Goals of this plan:
1. From an American perspective, it will serve all purposes;
a. Their interests in Egypt.
b. The balance in the relations between Egypt and Israel will remain in place.
c. They will show the world and the Egyptian people that they have stood by their morals and ethical values with regard to Democracy.
d. The Egyptian people will get their stability and believe that they are finally ruling themselves and they will get back to their homes to stay dormant for a decade or more.
e. It will preserve the American interests in the Gulf States when the people there will see that Egypt is dormant again and of the Monarchs the Egyptian role is not back full power like the 50s and 60s or the days of Mohamed Ali.
f. A new Sykes-Picot Plan will be drawn to the region in absence of its representatives except those who are allies to the Americans. The plan will be in place while the people are still struggling to get rid of the oligarchs in the institutions and business in their countries. Hence, there will be no say for those who will be the subjects of the plan.
2. From the perspective of SCAF, it will serve the following purposes;
a. SCAF will look like the hero in the eyes of the Egyptian public; it has preserved the stability and the integrity of the state when it was in dire need to do that.
b. Prolongation of the periods of elections for both houses of the Parliament and the Presidential will get the people bored of the game of democracy with nothing changing in their daily lives. (Divide and Rule again + people freak out from the ruling of islamists when it gets too close to reality)
c. Further confidence that the Military is the only solid institution in the Country to play the role of the guardian of the Constitutional legitimacy.
d. SCAF will leave the forefront of the power scene without any damages to their benefits, immunities or privileges.
e. SCAF will have a President, who is an X-General, that will run for the elections in the last minute, or one of their allies from the civilians. Then they can take a step backwards and be in control from behind the scene.
f. Burning all the islamist factions (old rivalries since 1954) by allowing them to run freely for elections, contrary to the legal system that rejects the use of religion in politics, through allowing them to get the majority of the Parliament. A parliament with very limited powers and million electoral promises that should be met in a short time. Hence, islamists will fail to deliver, beginning from the ultra orthodox Nour and Jama3a Islamiy’a who won’t be able to achieve their goal by establishing a rule based on theology and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are the oldest in the streets that will fail to deliver its promises, especially with security when they cannot form a government.
Other political factions and coalitions are mostly so far in the minority and they can always claim that they are new to the game and if they deliver their promises of a civil state and social justice in the constitution… they will get back to their constituencies as achievers.
What is missing here is one aspect that has been under estimated for decades and until now, even after 2 waves of the revolution has been underestimated. This is the EGYPTIAN PEOPLE.
The following square completes the image of the political scene in Egypt.
Egyptian Poeple SCAF
US PLAN
Polical Factions Islamist Factions
The entire plan is based on the assumption that people, the regular Egyptians, will be sick of the youth with political views and ideologies and all what they will care for stability and getting back their lives to normalcy.
This proved right in the referendum, the run-offs of the first round of the Parliamentary elections and from the pattern of voting towards the freedom and justice party which was able to use the heritage of the Muslim Brotherhood and Gulf money to deliver services to the poor areas where the government was totally absent in order to gain majority in the Parliament. This has also been proven right when fewer people joined in the demonstrations between February to November when the calls were strictly on political and legal issues.
Yet, the Friday 18th of November 2011 demonstration that was led by islamist factions against the Military interfering in the composition of the Constitutional Assembly and following it demonstrations that are led by those who contributed in the 25th of January Revolution (without formal contribution from most of the islaimst factions) for almost 10 days proved otherwise. Yes, the latter ignited clashes between the people and the authorities in the street of the Ministry of Interior and all around the country but it failed to gain the sympathy of the majority of the people. The main call was to put an end to SCAF ruling now and people were lost between the need to have minimum stability with SCAF running the show during the interim period and the lack of confidence in the reasons behind the second wave while the elections were so near. This proximity led to less support by the majority to those in Tahrir and their supporters all around the State. They were only mad at the brutality of the security forces but they didn’t know who to blame.
To sum up, all these plans will fail only by the persistence of the People. History proved that when people are persistent to fight for their rights and freedoms they get it. If they fail to or cease to fight, only then plans will prevail not the will of the people. When it comes to Egypt, it will be a long term struggle for power, yet, I am positive and confident that the WILL OF THE PEOPLE SHALL PREVAIL.
Namira Negm
This constitutes a hypothetical assessment to the current situation in Egypt. The least we can describe it with is a lucid situation where no one knows what it will lead to in the next few years.
A Plan or no Plan:
A persistent question that did not leave my mind since SCAF assumed the responsibility of the State in February 2011, are they implementing a plan to get us out of the current situation or they only react to the acts that take place on a case by case basis. Many scholars and analysts differed in their point of views. Some believed that it is all an American plan and the road map for the transition has already been assembled with SCAF members with their counter parts in the pentagon. Others disagree and they believe that SCAF has no plan, the situation is overwhelming to the leaders of the army who stayed for ages away from the political scene and now they found themselves trapped between the people, the old oligarchy, the foreign interests and their personal interests. They have all been appointed by the ousted president and they worked under his command for decades, they won’t be interested to meet his fate or even close.With that in mind, it is a bit confusing…
however, the answer might not be a simple one but there are few elements to consider:
1. The point of unity during January- February 2011 was to put an end to a dictatorship. All factions gathered in the squares of Egypt in millions and the rest gathered in neighbourhood watch groups to protect themselves and their families from the thugs in the absence of Police forces. This was and still is a source of danger to whoever wants to rule Egypt through a Plan.
2. The Military leaders managed to get rid of the dictator.. i.e. siding with the People and became national heroes.. yet, the threat to their power is imminent if the point of unity remains in place.. so now it is time to DIVIDE AND RULE. A quick remedy that will not only split the people in trivial arguments and distract them from what I do, but also it will assist me in putting my house in order and stop any criticism that may arise for the military stepping into the scene with full force.
3. REFERENDUM: interesting enough.. all of us, as expected of course, were more than happy to cast our vote..Many of us knew at the time, that it is absurd to go for such referendum.. the split started between the Egyptians and we started to speak of law and politics and not Egypt… we started to debate:
a. The composition of the Committee.
b. The appropriateness of the timing.
c. The problems entailing amending a dead constitution and bringing it back to life.
d. Shall we draft a constitution first or elect a president and parliament first.\
e. A non-existent fuss over Article 2 regarding the Principles of Shari’af. Many other little details.
4. The Referendum was a brilliant tool to achieve the DIVIDE TO RULE… it worked.. and people thought they will get stability by saying YES… the outcome of the vote was 18 million turn out at polling stations.. lot of Media influence and good for calculating what can take place next.. in fact, the most sensitive issue that we voted for, consciously or unconsciously, that we gave SCAF full powers.. a blank sheet to run the country.. SCAF, in accordance with the Constitutional Declaration has the right to assume the powers of the President and the Legislative Power until both are elected. These powers were not met by any responsibility towards the people… i.e. no means of accountability… what is better than this for someone in the leadership position?!
5. Yet, another controversial issue that came out of the referendum was issuing the second Constitutional Declaration, which incorporated much more provisions than those that we voted on. Moreover, the ones that got green light in the referendum were changed in the Declaration, including that SCAF will be the one putting the new constitution to the people for a public referendum and not the newly elected President… interesting isn’t it?
6. Since then, things seemed to be back to normal and the people shushed anyone that complains because the Media brainwashed the people that stability and economic growth depends on ending demonstrations. They didn’t mention that as long as the Military Junta is in Power, there are doubts that stability will be brought into the political scene and that is one primary factor for investments and economic growth. Sporadic incidents took place all around the country due to the lack of security and rule of law implementation… yet, it was always the people that are blamed not the ones in power.
7. This was the situation until Maspero Massacre, which ignited lots of animosity and calls for SCAF to give up power. It was meant to take the shape of Muslim/Christian sectarian violence… but failed big time…yet, it did divide the people over who started and who killed who?
8. SCAF under pressure from all sides, internally and externally, decided to hold elections on time as planned. November will be the beginning of a 4 months daunting elections to elect members of the 2 houses of Parliament… regardless of the fact that SCAF members meet with political factions and then decide something else, which is another way to divide the players on the political scene, people were eager to go through the institutional legitimacy in order to get stability.
9. All of a sudden, under huge pressure, SCAF realized that it has committed a grave mistake by leaving everything in relation to the new constitution in the hands of civilians that will be elected in the Parliament… from the composition of the Assembly of the Constitution to the privileges and immunities of the Army. So, their remedy was ElSelmy’s Document… through the Deputy Prime Minister, a good tool to impose a document before elections and to divide and rule just before the elections… let’s see who can still mobilize the street against SCAF and let’s put all the political factions in clash again with each other depending on which interests are at stake.
10. So far, the outcome is one “Kandahar Friday” led by Islamists and as of the following Saturday all political factions asking SCAF to step down and give power to a civil council to run the interim period until we have a president.. brilliant situation through which it has divided the people further, managed to leave Islamists do their utmost to get the majority in the parliament and keep the idealist revolutionaries screaming in Tahrir and killed in Mohamed Mahmoud.. and, under the pretence it is for the sake of the Country, the elections will be held by hook or by crook on time… which it did!
11. Elections became a target and goal in the minds of people.. again this is what will bring us stability and guess what? Through our votes.. our voice will finally be heard.. so, people were also adamant to have elections to get rid of the dilemma that they don’t understand and they are mostly not part of it except through home discussions with family and friends. They forgot that elections is simply a tool through which people express what they want in order to reach a democratic system.. it is not democracy in itself.. but anyways.. it became as such for the moment.
12. Now, miraculously, the first phase of the elections is almost over, the run offs are going to be on Monday 5 December 2011 and another imposed legitimacy on the people are played so well. Tahrir is getting emptier and people are watching for the moment. The highest turn out in an election in the history of modern Egypt… and all is celebrating democracy… stability is near! And an end to the Military Junta ruling is close… until June 2012 and Egypt will be heading towards a better future!Now, is this part of a plan or not? I believe it is. The plan is reincarnating the old regime in new figures, names, political ideologies and through elections.
The diagram below shows who the parties of the plan are and I will describe how it works in my point of view:
SCAF
US PLAN
Polical Factions Islamist Factions
The Plan is an American one, this assumption is based on the following:
1. Naom Chomsky’s theory: the American interests in the region will be directly hampered by real democracy. The reason behind that is the growing sentiment of animosity towards the American policies in the region, especially after the Iraqi invasion, and its strategic alliance with Israel that proves always to be on top of the American Agenda in its dealing with the region. Moreover, we should not forget that although Egypt is not a wealthy oil nation, but it has the Suez Canal. Through its location, population, history and demography its power should not be taken lightly.
2. Tariq Ramadan, a Professor of Contemporary Islamic Studies at Oxford University, mentioned that the members of the youth movements, including some of the members of the 6th of April Movement and the role that Google played, through its support to Wael Ghoneim, showed that all of them in a way or another were used as part of the plan. May be they knew, maybe not… but the trainings abroad since the year 2000 to the members of the youth movements on how to gather people under one slogan and avoid contradictory issues in order to mobilize the masses, the service that Google provided to tweet over the phones in the absence of internet communication in Egypt was remarkable opposing to a refusal to provide similar service to the revolt in Syria.
3. SCAF members and the Egyptian institutions were not at all prepared to draw a proper plan. We are talking about a flawed system that used to work only to serve one person and his family later on for decades. Hence, the corruption is not only in financial or administrative aspects.. but it led to putting unfit people in certain positions… hence, it is very difficult to believe that the plan is all made within the borders of Egypt.
4. The United States have been sending delegations, researchers, scholars, NGOs.. all funded by different parts of the American system to conduct business in Egypt and do thorough research about every aspect of the human life in Egypt together with the involvement in its industry and economy. Hence, the US has enough information and studies in place to use when necessary to preserve its interests in Egypt.
5. The US is not the sole implementer of the Plan. It does that directly, through its contacts with SCAF members, Muslim Brotherhood and other Political players and indirectly through its allies in the region. After the Egyptian Revolt, we had a new Baghdad Pact forming against revolutions by Monarchies through the invitation addressed by the Gulf Cooperation Council to Morocco and Jordan to join. Funny enough that Jordan had a request pending to join the GCC for ages, and Morocco is way far from the vicinity of the Gulf… yet it is time to join forces to engulf the revolutions in the Arab Countries in order to preserve the powers of the Monarchs. Furthermore, this is evident from the financing of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain to the Salafis and Muslim Brotherhood. It will be naïve to assume that all the millions of dollars spent by the GCC members on specific sect, that lean more towards oppression rather than democracy, is done in isolation from a US laissez faire policy or upon direct approval of the US Government.
6. Mossad and CIA are not far from the work done on the ground undercover. In a lucid situation with lax security, time is ripe for those to conduct many of what they want in Egypt. Whether the latest news of arrest and deportation or putting into trial Israeli or American citizens are all based on solid information or not. Yet, some of them might be valid cases of espionage against the stability of Egypt.
7. Lack of leadership to the revolutionary forces ease up the job for all the internal and external players. It is easier to divide people without a leadership than those gathered behind one.
What is the content of the plan?Reincarnation of the old regime is the answer, how will this be done?
Through the following:
1. SCAF is concerned about keeping itself out of the trouble. Hence, all what most of these members care for is their safety and preserving their immunities and privileges. Since, they took over the country; they are working through Divide to Rule and issue bills to preserve their position and their colleagues who are now considered civilians. This amounts to impunity not only immunity. But they want to be away from any accountability before the people, whether when it comes to the Budget of the Military, their shares in 25% of the Egyptian Economy that no one knows to which extent it goes, their shares in public institutions, among which are; Heads of specialized Councils, Heads of Public Sector Companies, Governors, Ambassadors and others. Is this is preserved with the least amount of damage… well and good.. Preferable, but if not.. then they will fight for it.
2. Civilian Government and a Civilian President will be acceptable to SCAF as long as they will take one step backwards while keeping an eye on everything and preserving their interests. Hence, controlled democracy won’t hurt as long as the constitution either expressly gives them the powers of being the guarantors of the constitutional legitimacy and that the Military Budget is out of touch or at least implies that this will be the situation.
3. Following the reincarnation of the regime with new faces and even new ideologies will not hurt SCAF or affect it in anyway… and it will work well to preserve the interests of all those who see the revolution as a threat to their interests, whether the US, Israel or the Monarchies of the Gulf.
4. When another boiling point that was brining the second wave of the revolution to a success, SCAF in arrangements with the US, decided to react to this wave of the revolution by stating the following;
a. They are still supporting the revolution.
b. They are trying to keep the territorial integrity of the state.
c. Confirmation that SCAF doesn’t want to stay in power much longer than necessary.
d. They will change the government of Sharaf as the people want.
e. Elections will be held on time.f. Presidential election shall take place by the end June 2012.
5. With this, SCAF appealed to the general public to stop the bloodshed in Mohamed Mahmoud Street and to go for the elections that will bring a fair, democratically elected Parliament as a first step towards stability. The parliament will have the power to choose the 100 members of the Constitutional Assembly. Then we will have a Constitution and an elected President. SCAF will then leave the playground to the elected bodies and President to run the country and by then it would have fulfilled its perceived mandate.
6. Hence, we will have new figures.. people will celebrate democracy while at the same time. It will change nothing except limited things.
The Goals of this plan:
1. From an American perspective, it will serve all purposes;
a. Their interests in Egypt.
b. The balance in the relations between Egypt and Israel will remain in place.
c. They will show the world and the Egyptian people that they have stood by their morals and ethical values with regard to Democracy.
d. The Egyptian people will get their stability and believe that they are finally ruling themselves and they will get back to their homes to stay dormant for a decade or more.
e. It will preserve the American interests in the Gulf States when the people there will see that Egypt is dormant again and of the Monarchs the Egyptian role is not back full power like the 50s and 60s or the days of Mohamed Ali.
f. A new Sykes-Picot Plan will be drawn to the region in absence of its representatives except those who are allies to the Americans. The plan will be in place while the people are still struggling to get rid of the oligarchs in the institutions and business in their countries. Hence, there will be no say for those who will be the subjects of the plan.
2. From the perspective of SCAF, it will serve the following purposes;
a. SCAF will look like the hero in the eyes of the Egyptian public; it has preserved the stability and the integrity of the state when it was in dire need to do that.
b. Prolongation of the periods of elections for both houses of the Parliament and the Presidential will get the people bored of the game of democracy with nothing changing in their daily lives. (Divide and Rule again + people freak out from the ruling of islamists when it gets too close to reality)
c. Further confidence that the Military is the only solid institution in the Country to play the role of the guardian of the Constitutional legitimacy.
d. SCAF will leave the forefront of the power scene without any damages to their benefits, immunities or privileges.
e. SCAF will have a President, who is an X-General, that will run for the elections in the last minute, or one of their allies from the civilians. Then they can take a step backwards and be in control from behind the scene.
f. Burning all the islamist factions (old rivalries since 1954) by allowing them to run freely for elections, contrary to the legal system that rejects the use of religion in politics, through allowing them to get the majority of the Parliament. A parliament with very limited powers and million electoral promises that should be met in a short time. Hence, islamists will fail to deliver, beginning from the ultra orthodox Nour and Jama3a Islamiy’a who won’t be able to achieve their goal by establishing a rule based on theology and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are the oldest in the streets that will fail to deliver its promises, especially with security when they cannot form a government.
Other political factions and coalitions are mostly so far in the minority and they can always claim that they are new to the game and if they deliver their promises of a civil state and social justice in the constitution… they will get back to their constituencies as achievers.
What is missing here is one aspect that has been under estimated for decades and until now, even after 2 waves of the revolution has been underestimated. This is the EGYPTIAN PEOPLE.
The following square completes the image of the political scene in Egypt.
Egyptian Poeple SCAF
US PLAN
Polical Factions Islamist Factions
The entire plan is based on the assumption that people, the regular Egyptians, will be sick of the youth with political views and ideologies and all what they will care for stability and getting back their lives to normalcy.
This proved right in the referendum, the run-offs of the first round of the Parliamentary elections and from the pattern of voting towards the freedom and justice party which was able to use the heritage of the Muslim Brotherhood and Gulf money to deliver services to the poor areas where the government was totally absent in order to gain majority in the Parliament. This has also been proven right when fewer people joined in the demonstrations between February to November when the calls were strictly on political and legal issues.
Yet, the Friday 18th of November 2011 demonstration that was led by islamist factions against the Military interfering in the composition of the Constitutional Assembly and following it demonstrations that are led by those who contributed in the 25th of January Revolution (without formal contribution from most of the islaimst factions) for almost 10 days proved otherwise. Yes, the latter ignited clashes between the people and the authorities in the street of the Ministry of Interior and all around the country but it failed to gain the sympathy of the majority of the people. The main call was to put an end to SCAF ruling now and people were lost between the need to have minimum stability with SCAF running the show during the interim period and the lack of confidence in the reasons behind the second wave while the elections were so near. This proximity led to less support by the majority to those in Tahrir and their supporters all around the State. They were only mad at the brutality of the security forces but they didn’t know who to blame.
To sum up, all these plans will fail only by the persistence of the People. History proved that when people are persistent to fight for their rights and freedoms they get it. If they fail to or cease to fight, only then plans will prevail not the will of the people. When it comes to Egypt, it will be a long term struggle for power, yet, I am positive and confident that the WILL OF THE PEOPLE SHALL PREVAIL.
THE RE-INCARNATION OF THE OLD REGIME IN EGYPT2
This is a follow up to the last post on the reincarnation of the old regime in Egypt...
The latest developments that took place in Egypt in the last few days can prove that there is something fishy about the elections and the new Ganzouri government.. this post will attempt to assess them.. there is no solid grounds but only reading the facts and trying to understand what is going on...
1. the run-offs in the first round of parliamentary elections:
a. the turn out of people to the ballot stations was very low in comparison to the day of the main elections, there were many reasons brought up by different people, including, inter alia;
- the negative effect of the media with elite scrutinizing the illiteracy of the population for making wrong choices.
- the fear of the people from brining themselves to dooms day because of their choices, including the Nour Party and the last statements made by some of its members in the run offs that made people scared of the unknown.
- people thought that there will be no fine for not voting in the run offs in comparison to the main day of elections.
- those who wanted secular parties lost interest because of the outcome, they've already lost the majority to the Islamists.
- those who wanted islamists, some decided there might be no use to go because they have already gained the majority.
- the complexity of the electoral system for the regular egyptians can well be a reason for refraining from going again and again.
- avoiding the long queues that people have to bear in only a week ago.. so why would they leave their work, errands or housework in order to suffer in a queue in something that they don't have real interest in.
- buying votes and using electoral tactics were at its top in the first round, but not the same in run offs in certain districts.
- only those who were fighting for a right, a view or they know what is it all about went out of their way to vote.
b. the outcome of the run- offs shows that the Muslim Brotherhood took one step backwards in districts where the run offs were between one of their members and a secular or real independent one ( elkotla almasrya, elwafed or el adl), but they were very forceful in districts where the run offs were between one of their members and a salafi member... they even made deals with copts in Alexandria to make sure that Shahat, who was the main speaker for the Nour Party, will lose.
c. this indicates what? there is a deal between the brotherhood and SCAF, and if it is not a deal then coordination in order to pave the way to specific distribution of power in the upcoming parliament that will serve the intrests of both.i wouldn't go back to the choice of the members of the constitution committee that proposed the amendments to the 1971 constitution before the referendum in which only the brotherhood was represented from among all the politcal factions to prove that there is coordination.. but it is evident from the different statements mede by the members of the brotherhood.. they will accept to leave the Military, its budget, privilleges and immunities intact.. even if it amounts to impunity.. it is fine as long as they will get to power (TV show with one of their prominent members) moreover, avoiding any clash with the military at this stage is profitable and appealing to the general public.. hence.. it is fine to go for it..also.. some statements were loud calling for SCAF to leave the parliamentary majority to form the government .. then almost appologies for that tone and accepting the facts and law in the constitutional declaration.
d. possible alliances between the brotherhood, elkotla and other secular parties.. will crush the salafists and will give the brotherhood more power in dealing with different issues in the parliament and as a tactic in negotiations with SCAF.
e. MB seems to have learnt a little bit from 1954 experience, although there is massive lack of trust between the Military and MB but the latter is going to keep a low profile in order to get to power before they start overtly into a real power struggle.. SCAF is playing the game of the carrot and the stick with the brotherhood.. you get seats in the parliament and i let go of the foreign funding.. yet.. if you step on boots you will suffer.. i already scrutinised you among other politcal factions that you are all either clients to foreign interests via relations and fundings or traitors via trainings abroad to destroy the country..so, people can only trust the military..
2. the Ganzouri Process:
1. appoint a very old PM.... NDP.. stayed forever in the system...
2. obedient..
3. happy to be brought from home so he will do as he asked
4. give him the same amount of power of his predecessor and he won't complain
5. amend the constitution in order to give him some presidential powers for the interim period.. which will eventually be the powers of the newly elected president in june 2012 and prolonging keeping all the reins of the game in the hands of SCAF.
how will this be done?
first let us look at the time frames of elections and constituion:
1. elections for both houses of the parliament will be done in March 2012
2. if they start their work in March, they are supposed to choose the members of the Constitutional Assembly in 6 months. this means from March until September 2012.
3. the Constitutional Assmebly has 6 months in order to draft a constitution, i.e. from September 2012 until March 2013.
4. a decision has been adopted by SCAF that Presidential elections will be held at the end of June 2012... what will be the powers of the new president? there is a need to a law to limit his powers, otherwise, having the legitimacy he can do what he pleases, like what Sadat did in 1971..
5. the Constitutional Declaration must be amended in order to ensure the existence of a legal framework when a president is elected.. these should be very limited.. exactly like limiting the powers of the Parliament..
6. this has to be done in a very subtle manner and indirectly.. if it is done directly like Elselmy's document.. the country will rise again..
7. the calls of revolutionary was to bring over a care taker government with real powers.. SCAF will do that in its own way.
8. appointing one of their obidient guys, he will confirm that he got real powers.. and he even announced that there will be amendments to the Constitutional Declaration in order to get some of the Presidential Powers.
9. in June 2012, the people will elect a new President, with no consitution to decide on the parameters of his powers..
10. the Constitutional Declaration replaced the old Constitution and the country is being run under it.. when the new President is elected, his powers will be derived from this declaration.
11. these powers will be the limited powers Ganzouri will accept as a PM for the caretaker Government...
if the power struggle between SCAF and MB is not imminent...because it is in both their interests to form a tactical alliance with SCAF in the leading role... and let's not forget that SCAF is the first one that gave MB the golden opportunity to get majority in syndicates and Parliament in their entire history since 1928..
YET, the real power struggle which has started with the second wave of the revolution will eventually come in its THIRD WAVE... it will be tough.. it will be brutal.. BUT IT WILL COME and the POWER OF THE PEOPLE WILL PREVAIL.. History proved that THE POWER OF THE PEOPLE ALWAYS PREVAIL.
The latest developments that took place in Egypt in the last few days can prove that there is something fishy about the elections and the new Ganzouri government.. this post will attempt to assess them.. there is no solid grounds but only reading the facts and trying to understand what is going on...
1. the run-offs in the first round of parliamentary elections:
a. the turn out of people to the ballot stations was very low in comparison to the day of the main elections, there were many reasons brought up by different people, including, inter alia;
- the negative effect of the media with elite scrutinizing the illiteracy of the population for making wrong choices.
- the fear of the people from brining themselves to dooms day because of their choices, including the Nour Party and the last statements made by some of its members in the run offs that made people scared of the unknown.
- people thought that there will be no fine for not voting in the run offs in comparison to the main day of elections.
- those who wanted secular parties lost interest because of the outcome, they've already lost the majority to the Islamists.
- those who wanted islamists, some decided there might be no use to go because they have already gained the majority.
- the complexity of the electoral system for the regular egyptians can well be a reason for refraining from going again and again.
- avoiding the long queues that people have to bear in only a week ago.. so why would they leave their work, errands or housework in order to suffer in a queue in something that they don't have real interest in.
- buying votes and using electoral tactics were at its top in the first round, but not the same in run offs in certain districts.
- only those who were fighting for a right, a view or they know what is it all about went out of their way to vote.
b. the outcome of the run- offs shows that the Muslim Brotherhood took one step backwards in districts where the run offs were between one of their members and a secular or real independent one ( elkotla almasrya, elwafed or el adl), but they were very forceful in districts where the run offs were between one of their members and a salafi member... they even made deals with copts in Alexandria to make sure that Shahat, who was the main speaker for the Nour Party, will lose.
c. this indicates what? there is a deal between the brotherhood and SCAF, and if it is not a deal then coordination in order to pave the way to specific distribution of power in the upcoming parliament that will serve the intrests of both.i wouldn't go back to the choice of the members of the constitution committee that proposed the amendments to the 1971 constitution before the referendum in which only the brotherhood was represented from among all the politcal factions to prove that there is coordination.. but it is evident from the different statements mede by the members of the brotherhood.. they will accept to leave the Military, its budget, privilleges and immunities intact.. even if it amounts to impunity.. it is fine as long as they will get to power (TV show with one of their prominent members) moreover, avoiding any clash with the military at this stage is profitable and appealing to the general public.. hence.. it is fine to go for it..also.. some statements were loud calling for SCAF to leave the parliamentary majority to form the government .. then almost appologies for that tone and accepting the facts and law in the constitutional declaration.
d. possible alliances between the brotherhood, elkotla and other secular parties.. will crush the salafists and will give the brotherhood more power in dealing with different issues in the parliament and as a tactic in negotiations with SCAF.
e. MB seems to have learnt a little bit from 1954 experience, although there is massive lack of trust between the Military and MB but the latter is going to keep a low profile in order to get to power before they start overtly into a real power struggle.. SCAF is playing the game of the carrot and the stick with the brotherhood.. you get seats in the parliament and i let go of the foreign funding.. yet.. if you step on boots you will suffer.. i already scrutinised you among other politcal factions that you are all either clients to foreign interests via relations and fundings or traitors via trainings abroad to destroy the country..so, people can only trust the military..
2. the Ganzouri Process:
1. appoint a very old PM.... NDP.. stayed forever in the system...
2. obedient..
3. happy to be brought from home so he will do as he asked
4. give him the same amount of power of his predecessor and he won't complain
5. amend the constitution in order to give him some presidential powers for the interim period.. which will eventually be the powers of the newly elected president in june 2012 and prolonging keeping all the reins of the game in the hands of SCAF.
how will this be done?
first let us look at the time frames of elections and constituion:
1. elections for both houses of the parliament will be done in March 2012
2. if they start their work in March, they are supposed to choose the members of the Constitutional Assembly in 6 months. this means from March until September 2012.
3. the Constitutional Assmebly has 6 months in order to draft a constitution, i.e. from September 2012 until March 2013.
4. a decision has been adopted by SCAF that Presidential elections will be held at the end of June 2012... what will be the powers of the new president? there is a need to a law to limit his powers, otherwise, having the legitimacy he can do what he pleases, like what Sadat did in 1971..
5. the Constitutional Declaration must be amended in order to ensure the existence of a legal framework when a president is elected.. these should be very limited.. exactly like limiting the powers of the Parliament..
6. this has to be done in a very subtle manner and indirectly.. if it is done directly like Elselmy's document.. the country will rise again..
7. the calls of revolutionary was to bring over a care taker government with real powers.. SCAF will do that in its own way.
8. appointing one of their obidient guys, he will confirm that he got real powers.. and he even announced that there will be amendments to the Constitutional Declaration in order to get some of the Presidential Powers.
9. in June 2012, the people will elect a new President, with no consitution to decide on the parameters of his powers..
10. the Constitutional Declaration replaced the old Constitution and the country is being run under it.. when the new President is elected, his powers will be derived from this declaration.
11. these powers will be the limited powers Ganzouri will accept as a PM for the caretaker Government...
if the power struggle between SCAF and MB is not imminent...because it is in both their interests to form a tactical alliance with SCAF in the leading role... and let's not forget that SCAF is the first one that gave MB the golden opportunity to get majority in syndicates and Parliament in their entire history since 1928..
YET, the real power struggle which has started with the second wave of the revolution will eventually come in its THIRD WAVE... it will be tough.. it will be brutal.. BUT IT WILL COME and the POWER OF THE PEOPLE WILL PREVAIL.. History proved that THE POWER OF THE PEOPLE ALWAYS PREVAIL.
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