THE RE-INCARNATION OF THE OLD REGIME IN EGYPT

THE RE-INCARNATION OF THE OLD REGIME IN EGYPT

Namira Negm

This constitutes a hypothetical assessment to the current situation in Egypt. The least we can describe it with is a lucid situation where no one knows what it will lead to in the next few years.

A Plan or no Plan:

A persistent question that did not leave my mind since SCAF assumed the responsibility of the State in February 2011, are they implementing a plan to get us out of the current situation or they only react to the acts that take place on a case by case basis. Many scholars and analysts differed in their point of views. Some believed that it is all an American plan and the road map for the transition has already been assembled with SCAF members with their counter parts in the pentagon. Others disagree and they believe that SCAF has no plan, the situation is overwhelming to the leaders of the army who stayed for ages away from the political scene and now they found themselves trapped between the people, the old oligarchy, the foreign interests and their personal interests. They have all been appointed by the ousted president and they worked under his command for decades, they won’t be interested to meet his fate or even close.With that in mind, it is a bit confusing…

however, the answer might not be a simple one but there are few elements to consider:

1. The point of unity during January- February 2011 was to put an end to a dictatorship. All factions gathered in the squares of Egypt in millions and the rest gathered in neighbourhood watch groups to protect themselves and their families from the thugs in the absence of Police forces. This was and still is a source of danger to whoever wants to rule Egypt through a Plan.

2. The Military leaders managed to get rid of the dictator.. i.e. siding with the People and became national heroes.. yet, the threat to their power is imminent if the point of unity remains in place.. so now it is time to DIVIDE AND RULE. A quick remedy that will not only split the people in trivial arguments and distract them from what I do, but also it will assist me in putting my house in order and stop any criticism that may arise for the military stepping into the scene with full force.

3. REFERENDUM: interesting enough.. all of us, as expected of course, were more than happy to cast our vote..Many of us knew at the time, that it is absurd to go for such referendum.. the split started between the Egyptians and we started to speak of law and politics and not Egypt… we started to debate:

a. The composition of the Committee.
b. The appropriateness of the timing.
c. The problems entailing amending a dead constitution and bringing it back to life.
d. Shall we draft a constitution first or elect a president and parliament first.\
e. A non-existent fuss over Article 2 regarding the Principles of Shari’af. Many other little details.

4. The Referendum was a brilliant tool to achieve the DIVIDE TO RULE… it worked.. and people thought they will get stability by saying YES… the outcome of the vote was 18 million turn out at polling stations.. lot of Media influence and good for calculating what can take place next.. in fact, the most sensitive issue that we voted for, consciously or unconsciously, that we gave SCAF full powers.. a blank sheet to run the country.. SCAF, in accordance with the Constitutional Declaration has the right to assume the powers of the President and the Legislative Power until both are elected. These powers were not met by any responsibility towards the people… i.e. no means of accountability… what is better than this for someone in the leadership position?!

5. Yet, another controversial issue that came out of the referendum was issuing the second Constitutional Declaration, which incorporated much more provisions than those that we voted on. Moreover, the ones that got green light in the referendum were changed in the Declaration, including that SCAF will be the one putting the new constitution to the people for a public referendum and not the newly elected President… interesting isn’t it?

6. Since then, things seemed to be back to normal and the people shushed anyone that complains because the Media brainwashed the people that stability and economic growth depends on ending demonstrations. They didn’t mention that as long as the Military Junta is in Power, there are doubts that stability will be brought into the political scene and that is one primary factor for investments and economic growth. Sporadic incidents took place all around the country due to the lack of security and rule of law implementation… yet, it was always the people that are blamed not the ones in power.

7. This was the situation until Maspero Massacre, which ignited lots of animosity and calls for SCAF to give up power. It was meant to take the shape of Muslim/Christian sectarian violence… but failed big time…yet, it did divide the people over who started and who killed who?

8. SCAF under pressure from all sides, internally and externally, decided to hold elections on time as planned. November will be the beginning of a 4 months daunting elections to elect members of the 2 houses of Parliament… regardless of the fact that SCAF members meet with political factions and then decide something else, which is another way to divide the players on the political scene, people were eager to go through the institutional legitimacy in order to get stability.

9. All of a sudden, under huge pressure, SCAF realized that it has committed a grave mistake by leaving everything in relation to the new constitution in the hands of civilians that will be elected in the Parliament… from the composition of the Assembly of the Constitution to the privileges and immunities of the Army. So, their remedy was ElSelmy’s Document… through the Deputy Prime Minister, a good tool to impose a document before elections and to divide and rule just before the elections… let’s see who can still mobilize the street against SCAF and let’s put all the political factions in clash again with each other depending on which interests are at stake.

10. So far, the outcome is one “Kandahar Friday” led by Islamists and as of the following Saturday all political factions asking SCAF to step down and give power to a civil council to run the interim period until we have a president.. brilliant situation through which it has divided the people further, managed to leave Islamists do their utmost to get the majority in the parliament and keep the idealist revolutionaries screaming in Tahrir and killed in Mohamed Mahmoud.. and, under the pretence it is for the sake of the Country, the elections will be held by hook or by crook on time… which it did!

11. Elections became a target and goal in the minds of people.. again this is what will bring us stability and guess what? Through our votes.. our voice will finally be heard.. so, people were also adamant to have elections to get rid of the dilemma that they don’t understand and they are mostly not part of it except through home discussions with family and friends. They forgot that elections is simply a tool through which people express what they want in order to reach a democratic system.. it is not democracy in itself.. but anyways.. it became as such for the moment.

12. Now, miraculously, the first phase of the elections is almost over, the run offs are going to be on Monday 5 December 2011 and another imposed legitimacy on the people are played so well. Tahrir is getting emptier and people are watching for the moment. The highest turn out in an election in the history of modern Egypt… and all is celebrating democracy… stability is near! And an end to the Military Junta ruling is close… until June 2012 and Egypt will be heading towards a better future!Now, is this part of a plan or not? I believe it is. The plan is reincarnating the old regime in new figures, names, political ideologies and through elections.

The diagram below shows who the parties of the plan are and I will describe how it works in my point of view:

SCAF
US PLAN
Polical Factions Islamist Factions


The Plan is an American one, this assumption is based on the following:

1. Naom Chomsky’s theory: the American interests in the region will be directly hampered by real democracy. The reason behind that is the growing sentiment of animosity towards the American policies in the region, especially after the Iraqi invasion, and its strategic alliance with Israel that proves always to be on top of the American Agenda in its dealing with the region. Moreover, we should not forget that although Egypt is not a wealthy oil nation, but it has the Suez Canal. Through its location, population, history and demography its power should not be taken lightly.

2. Tariq Ramadan, a Professor of Contemporary Islamic Studies at Oxford University, mentioned that the members of the youth movements, including some of the members of the 6th of April Movement and the role that Google played, through its support to Wael Ghoneim, showed that all of them in a way or another were used as part of the plan. May be they knew, maybe not… but the trainings abroad since the year 2000 to the members of the youth movements on how to gather people under one slogan and avoid contradictory issues in order to mobilize the masses, the service that Google provided to tweet over the phones in the absence of internet communication in Egypt was remarkable opposing to a refusal to provide similar service to the revolt in Syria.

3. SCAF members and the Egyptian institutions were not at all prepared to draw a proper plan. We are talking about a flawed system that used to work only to serve one person and his family later on for decades. Hence, the corruption is not only in financial or administrative aspects.. but it led to putting unfit people in certain positions… hence, it is very difficult to believe that the plan is all made within the borders of Egypt.

4. The United States have been sending delegations, researchers, scholars, NGOs.. all funded by different parts of the American system to conduct business in Egypt and do thorough research about every aspect of the human life in Egypt together with the involvement in its industry and economy. Hence, the US has enough information and studies in place to use when necessary to preserve its interests in Egypt.

5. The US is not the sole implementer of the Plan. It does that directly, through its contacts with SCAF members, Muslim Brotherhood and other Political players and indirectly through its allies in the region. After the Egyptian Revolt, we had a new Baghdad Pact forming against revolutions by Monarchies through the invitation addressed by the Gulf Cooperation Council to Morocco and Jordan to join. Funny enough that Jordan had a request pending to join the GCC for ages, and Morocco is way far from the vicinity of the Gulf… yet it is time to join forces to engulf the revolutions in the Arab Countries in order to preserve the powers of the Monarchs. Furthermore, this is evident from the financing of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain to the Salafis and Muslim Brotherhood. It will be naïve to assume that all the millions of dollars spent by the GCC members on specific sect, that lean more towards oppression rather than democracy, is done in isolation from a US laissez faire policy or upon direct approval of the US Government.


6. Mossad and CIA are not far from the work done on the ground undercover. In a lucid situation with lax security, time is ripe for those to conduct many of what they want in Egypt. Whether the latest news of arrest and deportation or putting into trial Israeli or American citizens are all based on solid information or not. Yet, some of them might be valid cases of espionage against the stability of Egypt.

7. Lack of leadership to the revolutionary forces ease up the job for all the internal and external players. It is easier to divide people without a leadership than those gathered behind one.

What is the content of the plan?Reincarnation of the old regime is the answer, how will this be done?

Through the following:

1. SCAF is concerned about keeping itself out of the trouble. Hence, all what most of these members care for is their safety and preserving their immunities and privileges. Since, they took over the country; they are working through Divide to Rule and issue bills to preserve their position and their colleagues who are now considered civilians. This amounts to impunity not only immunity. But they want to be away from any accountability before the people, whether when it comes to the Budget of the Military, their shares in 25% of the Egyptian Economy that no one knows to which extent it goes, their shares in public institutions, among which are; Heads of specialized Councils, Heads of Public Sector Companies, Governors, Ambassadors and others. Is this is preserved with the least amount of damage… well and good.. Preferable, but if not.. then they will fight for it.

2. Civilian Government and a Civilian President will be acceptable to SCAF as long as they will take one step backwards while keeping an eye on everything and preserving their interests. Hence, controlled democracy won’t hurt as long as the constitution either expressly gives them the powers of being the guarantors of the constitutional legitimacy and that the Military Budget is out of touch or at least implies that this will be the situation.

3. Following the reincarnation of the regime with new faces and even new ideologies will not hurt SCAF or affect it in anyway… and it will work well to preserve the interests of all those who see the revolution as a threat to their interests, whether the US, Israel or the Monarchies of the Gulf.

4. When another boiling point that was brining the second wave of the revolution to a success, SCAF in arrangements with the US, decided to react to this wave of the revolution by stating the following;

a. They are still supporting the revolution.

b. They are trying to keep the territorial integrity of the state.

c. Confirmation that SCAF doesn’t want to stay in power much longer than necessary.

d. They will change the government of Sharaf as the people want.

e. Elections will be held on time.f. Presidential election shall take place by the end June 2012.

5. With this, SCAF appealed to the general public to stop the bloodshed in Mohamed Mahmoud Street and to go for the elections that will bring a fair, democratically elected Parliament as a first step towards stability. The parliament will have the power to choose the 100 members of the Constitutional Assembly. Then we will have a Constitution and an elected President. SCAF will then leave the playground to the elected bodies and President to run the country and by then it would have fulfilled its perceived mandate.

6. Hence, we will have new figures.. people will celebrate democracy while at the same time. It will change nothing except limited things.


The Goals of this plan:

1. From an American perspective, it will serve all purposes;

a. Their interests in Egypt.
b. The balance in the relations between Egypt and Israel will remain in place.
c. They will show the world and the Egyptian people that they have stood by their morals and ethical values with regard to Democracy.
d. The Egyptian people will get their stability and believe that they are finally ruling themselves and they will get back to their homes to stay dormant for a decade or more.
e. It will preserve the American interests in the Gulf States when the people there will see that Egypt is dormant again and of the Monarchs the Egyptian role is not back full power like the 50s and 60s or the days of Mohamed Ali.
f. A new Sykes-Picot Plan will be drawn to the region in absence of its representatives except those who are allies to the Americans. The plan will be in place while the people are still struggling to get rid of the oligarchs in the institutions and business in their countries. Hence, there will be no say for those who will be the subjects of the plan.

2. From the perspective of SCAF, it will serve the following purposes;

a. SCAF will look like the hero in the eyes of the Egyptian public; it has preserved the stability and the integrity of the state when it was in dire need to do that.

b. Prolongation of the periods of elections for both houses of the Parliament and the Presidential will get the people bored of the game of democracy with nothing changing in their daily lives. (Divide and Rule again + people freak out from the ruling of islamists when it gets too close to reality)

c. Further confidence that the Military is the only solid institution in the Country to play the role of the guardian of the Constitutional legitimacy.

d. SCAF will leave the forefront of the power scene without any damages to their benefits, immunities or privileges.

e. SCAF will have a President, who is an X-General, that will run for the elections in the last minute, or one of their allies from the civilians. Then they can take a step backwards and be in control from behind the scene.

f. Burning all the islamist factions (old rivalries since 1954) by allowing them to run freely for elections, contrary to the legal system that rejects the use of religion in politics, through allowing them to get the majority of the Parliament. A parliament with very limited powers and million electoral promises that should be met in a short time. Hence, islamists will fail to deliver, beginning from the ultra orthodox Nour and Jama3a Islamiy’a who won’t be able to achieve their goal by establishing a rule based on theology and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are the oldest in the streets that will fail to deliver its promises, especially with security when they cannot form a government.

Other political factions and coalitions are mostly so far in the minority and they can always claim that they are new to the game and if they deliver their promises of a civil state and social justice in the constitution… they will get back to their constituencies as achievers.

What is missing here is one aspect that has been under estimated for decades and until now, even after 2 waves of the revolution has been underestimated. This is the EGYPTIAN PEOPLE.

The following square completes the image of the political scene in Egypt.

Egyptian Poeple SCAF
US PLAN
Polical Factions Islamist Factions



The entire plan is based on the assumption that people, the regular Egyptians, will be sick of the youth with political views and ideologies and all what they will care for stability and getting back their lives to normalcy.

This proved right in the referendum, the run-offs of the first round of the Parliamentary elections and from the pattern of voting towards the freedom and justice party which was able to use the heritage of the Muslim Brotherhood and Gulf money to deliver services to the poor areas where the government was totally absent in order to gain majority in the Parliament. This has also been proven right when fewer people joined in the demonstrations between February to November when the calls were strictly on political and legal issues.

Yet, the Friday 18th of November 2011 demonstration that was led by islamist factions against the Military interfering in the composition of the Constitutional Assembly and following it demonstrations that are led by those who contributed in the 25th of January Revolution (without formal contribution from most of the islaimst factions) for almost 10 days proved otherwise. Yes, the latter ignited clashes between the people and the authorities in the street of the Ministry of Interior and all around the country but it failed to gain the sympathy of the majority of the people. The main call was to put an end to SCAF ruling now and people were lost between the need to have minimum stability with SCAF running the show during the interim period and the lack of confidence in the reasons behind the second wave while the elections were so near. This proximity led to less support by the majority to those in Tahrir and their supporters all around the State. They were only mad at the brutality of the security forces but they didn’t know who to blame.


To sum up, all these plans will fail only by the persistence of the People. History proved that when people are persistent to fight for their rights and freedoms they get it. If they fail to or cease to fight, only then plans will prevail not the will of the people. When it comes to Egypt, it will be a long term struggle for power, yet, I am positive and confident that the WILL OF THE PEOPLE SHALL PREVAIL.