THE RE-INCARNATION OF THE OLD REGIME IN EGYPT2

This is a follow up to the last post on the reincarnation of the old regime in Egypt...


The latest developments that took place in Egypt in the last few days can prove that there is something fishy about the elections and the new Ganzouri government.. this post will attempt to assess them.. there is no solid grounds but only reading the facts and trying to understand what is going on...

1. the run-offs in the first round of parliamentary elections:

a. the turn out of people to the ballot stations was very low in comparison to the day of the main elections, there were many reasons brought up by different people, including, inter alia;
- the negative effect of the media with elite scrutinizing the illiteracy of the population for making wrong choices.
- the fear of the people from brining themselves to dooms day because of their choices, including the Nour Party and the last statements made by some of its members in the run offs that made people scared of the unknown.
- people thought that there will be no fine for not voting in the run offs in comparison to the main day of elections.
- those who wanted secular parties lost interest because of the outcome, they've already lost the majority to the Islamists.
- those who wanted islamists, some decided there might be no use to go because they have already gained the majority.
- the complexity of the electoral system for the regular egyptians can well be a reason for refraining from going again and again.
- avoiding the long queues that people have to bear in only a week ago.. so why would they leave their work, errands or housework in order to suffer in a queue in something that they don't have real interest in.
- buying votes and using electoral tactics were at its top in the first round, but not the same in run offs in certain districts.
- only those who were fighting for a right, a view or they know what is it all about went out of their way to vote.

b. the outcome of the run- offs shows that the Muslim Brotherhood took one step backwards in districts where the run offs were between one of their members and a secular or real independent one ( elkotla almasrya, elwafed or el adl), but they were very forceful in districts where the run offs were between one of their members and a salafi member... they even made deals with copts in Alexandria to make sure that Shahat, who was the main speaker for the Nour Party, will lose.

c. this indicates what? there is a deal between the brotherhood and SCAF, and if it is not a deal then coordination in order to pave the way to specific distribution of power in the upcoming parliament that will serve the intrests of both.i wouldn't go back to the choice of the members of the constitution committee that proposed the amendments to the 1971 constitution before the referendum in which only the brotherhood was represented from among all the politcal factions to prove that there is coordination.. but it is evident from the different statements mede by the members of the brotherhood.. they will accept to leave the Military, its budget, privilleges and immunities intact.. even if it amounts to impunity.. it is fine as long as they will get to power (TV show with one of their prominent members) moreover, avoiding any clash with the military at this stage is profitable and appealing to the general public.. hence.. it is fine to go for it..also.. some statements were loud calling for SCAF to leave the parliamentary majority to form the government .. then almost appologies for that tone and accepting the facts and law in the constitutional declaration.

d. possible alliances between the brotherhood, elkotla and other secular parties.. will crush the salafists and will give the brotherhood more power in dealing with different issues in the parliament and as a tactic in negotiations with SCAF.

e. MB seems to have learnt a little bit from 1954 experience, although there is massive lack of trust between the Military and MB but the latter is going to keep a low profile in order to get to power before they start overtly into a real power struggle.. SCAF is playing the game of the carrot and the stick with the brotherhood.. you get seats in the parliament and i let go of the foreign funding.. yet.. if you step on boots you will suffer.. i already scrutinised you among other politcal factions that you are all either clients to foreign interests via relations and fundings or traitors via trainings abroad to destroy the country..so, people can only trust the military..


2. the Ganzouri Process:

1. appoint a very old PM.... NDP.. stayed forever in the system...
2. obedient..
3. happy to be brought from home so he will do as he asked
4. give him the same amount of power of his predecessor and he won't complain
5. amend the constitution in order to give him some presidential powers for the interim period.. which will eventually be the powers of the newly elected president in june 2012 and prolonging keeping all the reins of the game in the hands of SCAF.

how will this be done?

first let us look at the time frames of elections and constituion:

1. elections for both houses of the parliament will be done in March 2012
2. if they start their work in March, they are supposed to choose the members of the Constitutional Assembly in 6 months. this means from March until September 2012.
3. the Constitutional Assmebly has 6 months in order to draft a constitution, i.e. from September 2012 until March 2013.

4. a decision has been adopted by SCAF that Presidential elections will be held at the end of June 2012... what will be the powers of the new president? there is a need to a law to limit his powers, otherwise, having the legitimacy he can do what he pleases, like what Sadat did in 1971..

5. the Constitutional Declaration must be amended in order to ensure the existence of a legal framework when a president is elected.. these should be very limited.. exactly like limiting the powers of the Parliament..

6. this has to be done in a very subtle manner and indirectly.. if it is done directly like Elselmy's document.. the country will rise again..

7. the calls of revolutionary was to bring over a care taker government with real powers.. SCAF will do that in its own way.

8. appointing one of their obidient guys, he will confirm that he got real powers.. and he even announced that there will be amendments to the Constitutional Declaration in order to get some of the Presidential Powers.

9. in June 2012, the people will elect a new President, with no consitution to decide on the parameters of his powers..

10. the Constitutional Declaration replaced the old Constitution and the country is being run under it.. when the new President is elected, his powers will be derived from this declaration.

11. these powers will be the limited powers Ganzouri will accept as a PM for the caretaker Government...


if the power struggle between SCAF and MB is not imminent...because it is in both their interests to form a tactical alliance with SCAF in the leading role... and let's not forget that SCAF is the first one that gave MB the golden opportunity to get majority in syndicates and Parliament in their entire history since 1928..

YET, the real power struggle which has started with the second wave of the revolution will eventually come in its THIRD WAVE... it will be tough.. it will be brutal.. BUT IT WILL COME and the POWER OF THE PEOPLE WILL PREVAIL.. History proved that THE POWER OF THE PEOPLE ALWAYS PREVAIL.